WGC-Mexico Championship Round 4 Betting Picks: Can Rory McIlroy Hunt Down Justin Thomas?
Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick
- Justin Thomas has a one-shot lead over Patrick Reed and Erik van Rooyen at the 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship.
- Thomas is nearly even money to win the tournament, but Jason Sobel thinks Rory McIlroy (+900) could be worth a shot entering Sunday.
Life comes at you fast.
This could probably be the lede before every final-round preview, after Moving Day scores have completely rearranged the leaderboard,
It’s certainly the case this week.
Entering the final 36 holes, Bryson DeChambeau was leading the WGC-Mexico Championship and Rory McIlroy was still hanging on to co-favorite honors. With just one round left, though, Justin Thomas is both the leader and the betting favorite at +105 (FanDuel) after grabbing a one-stroke lead over Erik Van Rooyen and Patrick Reed.
As researcher extraordinaire Justin Ray of the 15th Club tweeted Saturday evening, Thomas owns an 8-for-11 conversion rate when holding or sharing the lead entering the final round of a PGA Tour event. With that in mind, I have a tough time recommending anyone without the initials JT to win this tourney on Sunday afternoon.
But maybe — just maybe — this is the time to give Rory McIlroy a chance. He was +600 before the tourney, +130 after the first round and +340 after the second round. At 11-under and in a share of fourth now, four shots behind Thomas, McIlroy’s odds have finally elevated to +900.
I’m not necessarily advocating a JT fade, but if you’re so inclined, then jumping on Rory at his highest price of the week and hoping for something in the 62-63 range isn’t the worst plan.
Now let’s take a look at my favorite matchups for the final round.
WGC-Mexico Championship Picks: Round 4 Matchups
Victor Perez (+135) over Kurt Kitayama and Lucas Herbert
Perez posted a 5-under 66 on Saturday, but the ball-striking numbers were even more impressive than that: He gained 5.36 strokes tee to green and 3.94 with his approach shots, but went -1.61 putting.
If he just rolls it average and keeps everything else going, Perez should have a very nice Sunday round.
Xander Schauffele (+130) over Adam Scott and Zander Lombard
While he’s not quite there yet, Schauffele is building toward some big things this year, including another few potential major championship title runs.
This is a great spot to play him. Lombard isn’t nearly in the same category talent-wise and Scott should be feeling the rigors of playing on the heels of a victory. I love Schauffele here at plus-money.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+170) over Marc Leishman and Shane Lowry
In four Sunday rounds on the PGA Tour this season, Fitz has yet to break 71, which doesn’t bode well for this particular Sunday round. But I’m going against the recent final-round data and with this week’s data, which shows that he’s been striking the ball well but not scoring the way he should be.
This is a tough three-ball against the recent Farmers Insurance Open winner and the reigning Open Championship title-holder, but this is a good price to bet Fitz to post his lowest Sunday total of the season so far.
Hideki Matsuyama (+135) over Abraham Ancer and Kevin Na
Same old story: Hideki has struck it really well through 54 holes, but can’t get the ball into the hole. There’s good news, though. In eight Sunday rounds so far this season, he’s posted scores of 69-68-71-66-67-67-65-65. He’s my usual go-to guy for final rounds and this one is no different.
Betting against Ancer in his home country is a tough proposition, but Matsuyama tends to go low in these final rounds.