Once you've compared a golfer to the worst team in Major League Baseball history, it's tough to top the comparisons, but Scottie Scheffler is not only within a win or two of the 2025 Colorado Rockies in the last month but he is also priced like them.
This week, Scheffler is listed as the favorite to win the U.S. Open at +275, something the Rockies have done eight times already this season, with one victory.
So far during 2025, Scheffler has been +275 or shorter five times, with two straight-up wins.
Shortest Odds to Win Tournament in 2025 — Scottie Scheffler:
- Charles Schwab: +225
- Waste Management: +250
- U.S. Open: +275
- Byron Nelson: +275 (Won)
- Memorial: +275 (Won)
Priced Like Tiger Woods
Enough of the funny business, let's talk golf and more importantly the G.O.A.T. himself, Tiger Woods.
Scheffler is +275 to win the U.S. Open this week. That is the shortest odds for any golfer to win a major since Tiger Woods at the 2009 PGA Championship, where he was +180. This would be the shortest price for any golfer at the U.S. Open also since Tiger in 2009, where he closed at +200.
Just for some perspective: In the last 40 years, we've had 63 golfers listed at under +500 to win a major. Tiger has made up just under 62% of them on his own (39). This week will be Scheffler's fifth major with odds under +500, just one behind Greg Norman for second most.
At Scheffler's +275 price or shorter, the list is just 25 golfers in the last 40 years — 24 from Tiger Woods and now one from Scheffler, this week at the U.S. Open.
Do Low Odds = Major Victories?
Winning the actual major at these short odds is also a completely different story. Of the 63 golfers under +500, 14 have won the tournament outright (22%). Tiger has done it 11 times, with Curtis Strange at the 1988 U.S. Open, Nick Faldo at the 1990 Open Championship and Scheffler at the 2025 PGA Championship joining the club.
Of those 63 golfers, 31 have finished in the top-5 (49%) and 38 finished in the top-10 (60%), with just 17 of the 63 (27%) either withdrawing or finishing outside the top 20.
With Scheffler at +275 to win the U.S. Open and already just +400 to win the Open Championship, he would join Tiger for golfers to be under +500 in all four majors within the same year. Tiger not only did it in seven different years (2000-03, 05, 07, 09), he did it in four consecutive years (2000-03) and in 17 consecutive majors between the 2000 Masters and the 2004 Masters.
Scheffler's Streak as Favorite
Overall, Scheffler has been at least the co-favorite in 11 consecutive major tournaments between the 2023 Masters and the 2025 U.S. Open (and the streak doesn't look like it will stop anytime soon). That is the third-longest streak for any golfer in the last 40 years behind just two absurd stretches from Tiger.
Most Consecutive Majors As Favorite/Co-Favorite Last 40 Years (via Sports Odds History):
- 21 – Tiger Woods: 1999 Open Championship – 2004 Open Championship
- 14 – Tiger Woods: 2005 Masters – 2008 U.S. Open
- 11 – Scottie Scheffler: 2023 Masters – 2025 U.S. Open
Heavy Hitters Tough to Top at Majors
In major tournament golf recently, we've seen the heavy hitters come out and win. Since the start of the 2024 Masters, the last six major tournament winners have all had 20-1 odds or shorter entering the first round of play.
- 2024 Masters: Scottie Scheffler (+500)
- 2024 PGA: Xander Schauffele (+1400)
- 2024 U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
- 2024 Open Champ.: Xander Schauffele (+1200)
- 2025 Masters: Rory McIlroy (+650)
- 2025 PGA: Scottie Scheffler (+450)
The last major winner with pre-tournament odds of longer than 20-1 was Brian Harman at the 2023 Open Championship.
This is the first time we've had six consecutive majors all won by golfers entering round 1 with 20-1 odds or shorter since 1999 to 2001, when it started with Tiger Woods in the 1999 PGA Championship at the end of the season and extended through the 2001 Masters also behind Tiger Woods, a total of six tournaments, with five being won by Tiger.
- 1999 PGA: Tiger Woods (+600)
- 2000 Masters: Vijay Singh (+1800)
- 2000 U.S. Open: Tiger Woods (+300)
- 2000 Open Champ.: Tiger Woods (+150)
- 2000 PGA: Tiger Woods (+160)
- 2001 Masters: Tiger Woods (+150)
A winner of 20-1 or shorter hasn't been done in seven consecutive major tournaments in at least the last 40 years.
