Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hitting Two Dogs, Two Totals
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Five games are already completed or underway, but that hasn’t stopped wiseguys from picking apart the rest of today’s slate. Value is value and sharp money is wreaking havoc on lines for each of the remaining games on the schedule.
After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 6:10, 7:05, 7:07 and 8:15 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET
Seattle Mariners (+104) at Cleveland Indians
6:10 p.m. ET
Despite receiving less than 30% of bets, Seattle has moved from +120 to +104 since opening. Why would the Mariners payout get smaller if the vast majority of bets are on Cleveland? Because sharps got down hard on the M’s, creating big liability. Wiseguys hit Seattle three different times across the offshore market (+120 at Greek, +105 at SIA and +100 at Sportsbook). Meanwhile, the Mariners also enjoy one of the day’s sharpest bets vs. dollars discrepancies. They’re only getting 29% bets but 52% dollars, a sign that heavy wiseguy money is on their side.
Tampa Bay Rays (+111) at Baltimore Orioles
7:05 p.m. ET
Here are two AL East teams trending in totally different directions. The lowly Rays have risen from the ashes like a Tampa Phoenix, winning five straight. Meanwhile, the Orioles have lost four in a row. Public bettors say the Rays are due for a loss and the Orioles are due for a win. But not the sharps.
Even though 61% of bets are on Baltimore, the line has moved big toward Tampa (+127 to +111). Wiseguys at Pinnacle got down hard on the Rays +120, causing the entire market to drop the line in Tampa’s favor. Historically, road divisional dogs have been profitable for wiseguy bettors. It doesn’t hurt that Tampa’s Ace, Chris Archer, is on the mound, either.
Boston Red Sox – Toronto Blue Jays Over 8
7:07 p.m. ET
Recreational bettors see Chris Sale (1-1, 1.86 ERA) on the mound and automatically go Under. However, sharps see a buy-low contrarian Over opportunity. The Over is only getting 42% of bets but 86% of dollars, a massive bets vs. dollars smart money discrepancy. Professional players at Pinnacle steamed the Over 8, causing the juice on the Over 8 to move from +108 to -106.
Chicago White Sox – Kansas City Royals Over 9
8:15 p.m. ET
Total bets are split 50/50, but a whopping 94% of dollars are on the Over. Late last night, wiseguys at Heritage hammered the Over 8. This morning, sharps at YouWager and Pinnacle crushed the Over 8.5. This trio of steam and reverse line moves caused the total to rise briefly to 9.5, then fall back down to 9. Currently, the Over 9 is juiced up to -120, indicating the next move is likely back up to 9.5.
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Top Photo: White Sox infielder Yoan Moncada smiles in the dugout after hitting a home run against the Mariners