The Philadelphia Phillies (51-37) and Cincinnati Reds (46-42) will meet in the MLB on Saturday afternoon. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
The Reds took the first game of this series yesterday and will send Nick Lodolo to the mound today against the Phillies' Ranger Suarez.
Find our MLB betting preview and Reds vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more for Saturday, July 5.
My Reds vs Phillies Prediction
- Reds vs Phillies pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
My Phillies vs. Reds best bet is on the Under at 8.5 total runs, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Phillies Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +145 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -180 |
Reds vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 3.52 / 4.10 | ERA / xERA | 2.00 / 2.50 |
| 4.06 / 3.96 | FIP / xFIP | 2.88 / 3.35 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 16.3 | K-BB% | 17.7 |
| 42.0 | GB% | 52.6 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 100 | Location+ | 113 |
Reds vs Phillies Preview, Picks
After a 9-6 score on the first game of this series yesterday, we have a great pitchers' duel today that could shift the trend toward the under.
Nick Lodolo is having his best season yet in the majors, with a 3.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
He has not allowed more than two runs in his last three starts, and has only given up more than three in three outings this year.
Lodolo's home/away splits also favor him today, since he is performing much better on the road with a 2.31 ERA compared to his home ERA of 4.69.
On the other side, the Phillies' Ranger Suarez is dominating in 2025 with a 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .209 average against.
He is on a roll, allowing only one run in seven of his last eight starts, and the only exception was a game where he gave up two runs.
The Reds are worse offensively against southpaws. They rank 19th overall in wRC+ with 97, but fall to 22nd with 80 against left-handed pitchers.
This aligns with the Under recommendation from our Bet Labs' Steam Unders with Low OU Support system.
Reds vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB betting system, titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support," is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular-season games from 2019 to 2025, where the closing total lands between 8 and 10 —sweet spots for scoring volatility.
It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under.
This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between the two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm.
It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends. Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where the public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, supported by a large sample size and a strong return on investment.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, BetMGM)
