The Seattle Mariners host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 5, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
The Mariners shut out the Pirates 6-0 in the opener of this three-game series. Luis Castillo will toe the rubber for the home team tonight, and Mike Burrows will oppose him for Pittsburgh.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Pirates vs Mariners Prediction
- Pirates vs Mariners picks: Under 7 (+105, BetMGM)
My Pirates vs Mariners best bet is Under 7 total runs for this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Mariners Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7 -125o / 105u | +145 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7 -125o / 105u | -175 |
Pirates vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mike Burrows (PIT) | Stat | RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 4.15 / 4.33 | ERA /xERA | 3.55 /4.73 |
| 4.73 / 3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 4.13 / 4.36 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 16.9 | K-BB% | 11.5 |
| 34.7 | GB% | 40.6 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 101 | Location+ | 103 |
Pirates vs Mariners Preview
Mike Burrows' stats might not inspire much confidence at first glance, but the Pittsburgh starter has a 2.73 ERA since the start of June, allowing more than two runs just once in six outings.
He might not go deep into games, although that should not be a problem since the Pirates have a top-10 bullpen with a 3.67 ERA.
The Mariners will send their former ace, Luis Castillo, to the mound. He is not the pitcher he once was, but this is the Pirates offense we are talking about. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in baseball with 81 wRC+ and dead last in ISO with .112.
In his last outing against the Texas Rangers, Castillo only gave up one run in six complete innings. He has a 2.60 ERA at home compared to his 4.67 ERA on the road.
Castillo thrives in T-Mobile Park, which ranks last in run production, according to Baseball Savant's Park Factors.
Seattle kept Pittsburgh scoreless yesterday, and although that might not be repeated today, a low score remains likely, which aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation, using the Public Fades Humidity = Unders system.
Pirates vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity —ranging from 45 to 95— intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, ranging from 6 to 29%. These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 7 (+105, BetMGM)
