The Minnesota Twins (42-46) and Tampa Bay Rays (48-40) will meet in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
Tampa Bay is a -125 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Minnesota is +105 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 9.5 total runs.
Continue below for my MLB betting preview and Rays vs Twins predictions for Saturday, July 5, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rays vs Twins Prediction
- Rays vs Twins picks: Rays Moneyline (-120 | Play to -130)
My Twins vs. Rays best bet is on Tampa Bay moneyline, with the best line currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Twins Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 9.5 -120o / +100u | -125 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 9.5 -120o / +100u | +105 |
Rays vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taj Bradley (TBR) | Stat | RHP Travis Adams (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 0.00 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 4.79 / 3.70 | ERA / xERA | 0.00 / 0.00 |
| 4.37 / 4.15 | FIP / xFIP | 0.00 / 0.00 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 0.00 |
| 11.0 | K-BB% | 0.0 |
| 48.7 | GB% | 0.0 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | — |
| 91 | Location+ | — |
Tony Sartori's Rays vs Twins Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Bradley Has Been Solid Against the Twins
Taj Bradley should serve as a strong buy-low candidate. Despite some mixed results in 2025, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming.
Bradley owns a 3.70 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the top half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That regression is likely to come to fruition against Minnesota, a team he has fared well against in recent seasons.
Over his past three starts against the Twins, Bradley has posted a 3.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Following Bradley is a reliable bullpen. Entering this matchup, Tampa Bay’s relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support, as the Rays rank in the top eight in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Low Production Lineup
There is a substantial hitting gap between these two teams. Minnesota ranks in the bottom 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS.
The pitching situation remains unclear for Minnesota, as the Twins have not yet announced a starter. The two most likely options are a bullpen game or newly signed right-hander Connor Gillispie.
Either way, the Rays should hold the pitching edge. First, Minnesota’s bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
Second, Gillispie was recently placed on waivers by Miami, and for good reason. Through six starts this season, he is 0-3 with an 8.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Rays vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
It remains to be seen what Minnesota does with its pitching plan, but neither likely option inspires confidence.
If Gillispie gets the start, the outlook is even worse; he ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Not only does Tampa Bay hold the pitching advantage, but it also possesses a clear edge at the plate.
Given these factors, the -120 moneyline presents solid value despite the uncertainty surrounding the Twins’ starting pitcher.
Pick: Rays ML (-120 | Play to -130)
