The MLB offseason is upon us, and that means that some of the league's top players will be signing new deals in free agency, either re-upping with their existing team or leaving town for greener pastures.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for the team most likely to sign Kyle Tucker, and three 2025 playoff teams lead the way.
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The percentages you see below represent what the market roughly believes each team's chances are (the "spread" is the reason it adds up to more than 100%, and it's how market makers make money. Again, see our full Kalshi how-to guide for why and how this works.)
Kyle Tucker's Next Team Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
Kyle Tucker's Free Agency Breakdown
Career
Ever since his first "full" year in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Kyle Tucker has been one of the best hitters in the league.
After riding the AAA shuttle in 2018 and 2019, the Astros finally found an everyday role for him; patrolling right field and supplementing a potent lineup that, at the time, included José Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman. As Springer and Correa departed in free agency, the onus shifted to Tucker to be the star of the Houston lineup.
From 2021 through 2024, Tucker played 522 games with the Astros, slashing .280/.362/.527 with 112 home runs, 80 steals, and 4 OAA in the outfield. He tallied exactly 4.9 fWAR in the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons, and somehow racked up 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games played in an injury-shortened 2024. Tucker became a World Series champion in 2022, smacking two home runs against the Phillies en route to the Astros' second championship in five years.
2025 Season
With their core aging, and both Bregman and Justin Verlander hitting free agency, the Astros decided to trade Tucker to the Cubs for a sizable player package, giving him up for his last year of team control.
Tucker instantly became one of the best bats on an upstart 2025 Cubs team, slashing .290/.393/.533 through July 1 to help lead his team to an NL Central-leading 50-37 record. After pacing for a career-best offensive season, Tucker's numbers fell off a cliff. From July 1 to the time he hit the injured list on September 2, Tucker slashed just .233/.358/.358, good for a 110 wRC+ but not good enough to help keep the Cubs in first place. When he was placed on the IL with a calf strain, it was revealed that he had been playing through a hairline fracture in his right hand since early June, likely dampening his power and limiting his ability to make contact.
With the Cubs getting bounced from the playoffs in the NLDS and Tucker not doing a whole lot to aid the offense after returning from injury, it seems unlikely that Chicago will bring him back on a big-money deal. Still, based on his track record and age, he projects to be the top free agent hitter on the market this offseason, drawing the eyes of other clubs looking to bolster their lineup for years to come.
Top Suitors
Los Angeles Dodgers
Kalshi has the defending World Series champions, the team with the highest active payroll in the league, as the top option to sign Kyle Tucker to a gargantuan deal.
And why shouldn't they? Despite their bevy of high-priced superstars and shiny new rings, the Dodgers' offense struggled at many points during this season and in the postseason. Every contender could always use another big bat.
Tucker would fit a clear need for the Dodgers, too. Their corner outfielders were average at best in 2025, recording a 100 wRC+ on a .239/.302/.421 slash line. With primary left fielder Michael Conforto also hitting free agency, that corner will be wide open, despite Tucker not having played there regularly in years. If the Dodgers wish to keep Tucker in right field, they'll likely have to move Teoscar Hernández, who is owed $15 million in 2026 and has a playing time vesting option for another $15 million in 2027.
The fit is there if the Dodgers want to explore it, and with a team that seems to sign a few nine-figure deals every offseason, money should be no object.
New York Yankees
Speaking of fit, the Yankees will likely be losing two of their starting outfielders to free agency. Cody Bellinger opted out of the final year of his contract, and Trent Grisham was given the qualifying offer of around one year, $22 million, which he may decline.
Bellinger and Grisham were two of the best hitters on the team last season, combining for 62 home runs and putting up a wRC+ of 125 and 129, respectively. It's unlikely that the Yankees sign both of them, and they might choose to ride with Jasson Domínguez in center field over either of them if they demand high-priced multi-year deals.
So, why not instead sign the outfielder with a better track record than Bellinger and Grisham combined? Tucker would have to play left field to accommodate Aaron Judge in right, but he is seemingly young and athletic enough to make that transition. And he wouldn't just be making up for Bellinger's and Grisham's production, he'd be improving upon a lineup that'll welcome back the above-average bats of Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, and Domínguez.
The price will be steep, but the Yankees have shown a willingness to bid competitively if they believe that the player is the right fit, especially in a clear championship window.
Philadelphia Phillies
Right behind the Dodgers and Yankees on the odds chart are the Phillies. However, they might be the best fit for Tucker out of all three of these teams.
While the Dodgers and Yankees would likely have to move Tucker to left field to accommodate the rest of their roster, the Phillies would be able to slot Tucker into their primary right field role. In addition, the Phillies have a ton of money coming off the books with Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto both hitting free agency.
Schwarber has had an iconic four-year tenure in Philly, but Tucker is the better long-term buy for a few reasons. One, he can play the field, while Schwarber is pretty much a full-time DH at this point. Two, and perhaps more importantly, Tucker is about four years younger than Schwarber, meaning he has a more advantageous position on the hitter aging curve.
Of course, there is also the question of what to do with Nick Castellanos and his remaining year and $20 million salary. It seems as if he's not expected to be on the roster by Opening Day, whether the Phillies are able to find a trade partner or just cut him and eat the money. Tucker would be an upgrade over Castellanos both in the lineup and in right field, where Castellanos grades out as one of the league's worst defenders year after year. Or, the Phillies could keep Castellanos and use him in a DH or platoon role while Tucker handles right.
Either way, the Phillies seem primed to go all-in for Tucker this offseason. It's only a question of how far ownership is willing to go, and if Tucker is interested in Philly in the first place.
