The Highlights

  • On holidays, Americans want to spend time with family and friends.
  • That’s not possible for road teams in baseball, which creates an edge for the home side.
  • One of the most profitable days of the year to bet home teams is the Fourth of July.

Since 2005, home teams on the Fourth of July have gone 119-74 (62%) straight-up. A $100 bettor would be up $2,130 (+11% ROI) following this simple strategy. This exceeds the historical win rate (17,709-15,100, 54%) for clubs playing in front of their hometown fans. It is not a large sample but what can explain home teams performing better on Independence Day?

 

My theory, most Americans want to spend the holiday with family and friends. Unfortunately for road baseball teams that isn’t possible. Being separated from loved ones is a distraction that benefits the home side.

Home teams have been more profitable to bet on when our nation celebrates its independence if the line moves in their direction (become bigger favorite or smaller underdog). Since 2005, when this happens the home team is 82-39 (68%) straight-up. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,392 (+20% ROI) following this system.

Four teams are playing at home and have seen the line move in their direction today: Nationals, Yankees, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Small samples and questionable theories are a good way to end up like Jason Pierre-Paul this holiday.

That’s why this trend isn’t the only reason I’m betting these home teams on the Fourth.

Washington Nationals (+115) vs. Boston Red Sox (11:05 a.m. ET): More than 70% of moneyline tickets are on Boston, yet the line has moved in Washington’s direction. This has triggered a reverse line movement bet signal, indication of sharp money, on the Nats.

New York Yankees (-179) vs. Atlanta Braves (1:05 p.m. ET): Since 2010, the Yankees as favorites in interleague play are 82-42 (66%) straight-up. A $100 bettor would be up $1,323 (11% ROI).

Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10 p.m. ET): Since 2010, large favorites (-200 or greater) in non-division games are 642-261 (71%) straight-up. The Dodgers have been the most profitable team in this situation during that span going 72-22 (77%) straight-up.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-142) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (10:10 p.m. ET): Umpire Tony Randazzo will be behind the plate tonight. Home teams are 218-164 (57%) straight-up, +12.71 units when Randazzo calls balls and strikes making him the 11th most profitable ump for home teams in the Bet Labs database.

Let’s start the Fourth of July with a bang by betting home teams with positive line movement. If it doesn’t work out, it probably won’t be the worst decision you make this holiday.

Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger

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