The Detroit Tigers host the Minnesota Twins on June 29, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Tigers are massive favorites in the rubber match of their three-game series versus AL Central rival Minnesota on Sunday, as Tarik Skubal (2.29 ERA, 102 IP) will look to further his case for a second consecutive AL Cy Young award as he faces off against Chris Paddack (4.64 ERA, 85 and 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Twins vs Tigers Prediction
- Twins vs Tigers picks: Tarik Skubal to Record A Win -115 (Bet365, Play to -125)
My Twins vs Tigers best bet is Skubal to get the victory today (-115). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +108 | 7.5 -101o / -120u | +236 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -132 | 7.5 -101o / -120u | -300 |
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Chris Paddack (MIN) | Stat | LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 9-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.8 |
| 4.64/ 4.39 | ERA /xERA | 2.29/ 2.62 |
| 4.28/ 4.68 | FIP / xFIP | 2.13/ 2.47 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 0.87 |
| 10.0% | K-BB% | 28.7% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 41.9% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 110 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin’s Twins vs Tigers Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
Since May 28, the Twins have struggled to a record of 10-19 and are now 2 1/2 games back of the final AL Wildcard playoff spot and trailing the Tigers by 12 games in the division.
Pitching has been a major concern during their recent skid, as their pitching staff has posted the league's highest ERA of 6.01.
Paddack has been one of the many Twins pitchers who have not been in good form over the last month. After pitching to a 3.92 ERA in his first 11 starts of the season, he's allowed an ERA of 6.11 across his last five starts.
In those starts, he's allowed an xBA of .311, been hard-hit 41% of the time, and holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 12.4%. His Stuff+ rating is down to 88 over the last five starts, and batters have a zone contact rate of 89.2%.
Despite being nine games below .500 over the last 30 days, the Twins have been in solid form offensively over the last month. They rank fifth in wRC+ and seventh in slugging percentage. They are 10th in hard-hit rate in that span, and ninth in BB/K ratio. They have been less productive versus left-handed pitching this season, with a wRC+ of 94, a strikeout rate of 24.8%, and a hard-hit rate of 29.6%.
Royce Lewis remains unavailable for this matchup as he is dealing with yet another injury; however, he has struggled to an OPS of .585 this season, while Brooks Lee has put up an OPS of .733.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
Tarik Skubal will be looking for a sharper performance in this matchup after allowing more than three earned runs for just the third time this season in his previous outing versus the Athletics, though he did manage to hang around for six innings and record his ninth win of the season.
Of the six major awards, the AL Cy Young race is actually considered to be the closest based on current betting odds. Skubal is priced at -140 currently to become the first back-to-back AL Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez (1999 and 2000). If the season ended today, Garrett Crochet would likely win with his 2.06 ERA across 109 and 1/3 innings of work.
Oddsmakers are rightfully believing that Skubal is more likely to outperform Crochet the rest of the way, given his results last season and his 2.62 xERA and 2.46 xFIP this season.
Skubal's strikeout minus walk rate is up to 28.7% compared to last season's mark of 25.6%, and he's been hard-hit just 32.1% of the time.
Despite a lesser performance on Tuesday versus the Athletics, Skubal has remained in comparably dominant form recently, posting a 1.89 ERA across his last five starts. He's been hard-hit only 30% of the time in those outings and holds a Stuff+ rating of 114.
The Tigers currently have zero position players on the IL, which has helped them achieve strong results offensively over the last month of play.
Since May 29th, they rank third in wRC+ and second in slugging percentage. Detroit ranks 10th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season and has been considerably more productive offensively at home, where it holds a wRC+ of 116.
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Paddack has been in awful form recently, and his recent underlying profile suggests he is likely to continue offering below-average results moving forward. Paddack finished the 2024 campaign with a 4.99 ERA, and after a surprisingly strong start to the campaign, it seems as though he is trending towards comparable results to what he offered last season.
The Tigers offense should have a great chance of spotting Skubal some early run support and providing their ace the opportunity to earn his ninth win of the season.
Skubal has remained in dominant form recently and gets a solid matchup versus a Twins lineup that has been average versus left-handed pitching this season.
He has lasted at least five innings in every single start this season, which has helped him to record wins in 56% of his starts.
Given that a matchup versus the struggling Twins with Paddack on the mound is favorable, there looks to be value in backing Skubal to earn another win in a big spot on Sunday Night Baseball.
Pick: Tarik Skubal to Record a Win -115 (Bet365, Play to -125)
Moneyline
Given that my favorite bet is Skubal to record a win, obviously my choice would be the Tigers in terms of the moneyline; however, I'd much rather take -115 to target a Skubal win than lay -270 to back Detroit winning in any fashion.
Run Line (Spread)
At -125, there looks to be some value in backing the Tigers to cover the run-line, but my preference would still be with backing Skubal to win at -115 if you are able to grab it.
Over/Under
After some line movement, the total is currently sitting at 7.5, which seems to be a fair price for this matchup.
