For Monday, June 30, I'm on four MLB home run props: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, George Springer, Jazz Chisholm and Brent Rooker.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, June 30
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 30
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+475)
vs Yankees (SP: LHP Carlos Rodon)
I'm going hard on the right-handed hitters today against Carlos Rodon because they're priced too high. Rodon isn't the same gas can he was for his first two seasons he was with the Yankees, but he's a plus matchup for righty power — giving up a 40% fly ball rate. Guerrero's underlying numbers have been great this season and he's due for some massive positive regression.
I have the true odds of Guerrero homering at around +400, making this a great EV bet.
George Springer (+550)
vs Yankees (SP: LHP Carlos Rodon)
George Springer has shown some massive leaps with power this season and has a 15% barrel rate on the year. He's due for some positive regression and with the plus matchup I have his true odds nearly 100 points lower today.
Jazz Chisholm (+525)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Max Scherzer)
Max Scherzer is getting old and isn't the same pitcher he used to be as he's giving up around a 1.45 HR/9 to lefties over the past few seasons and is also giving up close to a 50% fly-ball rate.
Additionally, this ballpark has been one of the best in the league for homers this season as it ranks third in home runs to lefties. Jazz Chisholm is a good home run hitter and, given the spot, I have the true odds of him homering today at around +400, making this a great EV bet.
Brent Rooker (+475)
at Rays (SP: RHP Drew Rasmussen)
The matchup vs. Drew Rasmussen is a tough one, but the odds are good today for Brent Rooker. The ballpark is a great one for power and with high temps and humidity, the ball should be flying. I have the true odds of Rooker homering at around +400, making this a good EV bet.
