MLB Odds, Picks, Betting Preview: Mets vs. Phillies (April 7)

MLB Odds, Picks, Betting Preview: Mets vs. Phillies (April 7) article feature image
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Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola.

  • The Phillies and Mets meet on Wednesday with ace Aaron Nola on the mound for Philadelphia.
  • New York feasted on right-handers last year, but can they handle someone as dominant as Nola?
  • Matt Trebby breaks down the matchup and makes his Mets vs. Phillies pick below.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds

Mets Odds +130
Phillies Odds -150
Over/Under 8
Time Wednesday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet

After getting their season off to a belated starts, the New York Mets close their three-game series on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Ballpark against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Mets fans will get their first glimpse of 2021 at left-hander David Peterson, who emerged as an important part of their rotation last season. He’ll square off against Phillies ace and National League Cy Young Award hopeful Aaron Nola.

Let’s dig in and find the betting value.

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New York Mets

Peterson entered the 2020 season after being pretty average at Double-A Binghamton the previous year. He had a 4.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 24 starts. He was listed as the Mets’ No. 7 prospect by MLB.com in 2019, though, having been a first-round pick in 2017.

Peterson pitched to a 3.44 ERA over 49 2/3 innings (10 appearances, nine starts) and was just what the Mets needed with Noah Syndergaard injured and Marcus Stroman opting out.

The southpaw’s FIP was 4.52, though, likely due to walking 4.3 batters per nine innings. He didn’t allow much contact — only 36 hits and five home runs — but the walks were a concern, especially since his free-pass rate in the minors was never above three aside from a four-start stint in the Arizona Fall League.

Peterson’s track record in the minors would indicate that he’s not going to walk as many batters moving forward, but that he is likely going to allow more than 6.5 hits per nine innings.

Offensively, the Mets’ lineup is loaded. It was discouraging that against a right-handed starter on Monday night, manager Luis Rojas kept Dominic Smith on the bench and not only started Kevin Pillar but hit him leadoff.

Against right-handers, though, the Metropolitans will have a stout 1-8 lineup. That doesn’t mean they’re going to thrive against Nola, though.

Last season, the Mets feasted on right-handed pitching thanks to strong left-handed bats like Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Smith. To go along with those guys, they went and added Francisco Lindor. New York ranked third in MLB last season with an .824 OPS against right-handed pitching.

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Philadelphia Phillies

Since 2017, there are few starting pitchers who have been better and more reliable than Nola. He threw 168 innings that year and then recorded back-to-back seasons of more than 200. In 2020, he started 12 games and averaged almost six innings per start (71 1/3).

At 28 years old, the Phillies’ ace is in his prime and poised to anchor a rotation that looked pretty impressive the first time through.

It’s worth noting that Nola did struggle (compared to his usually loft standards) against the Mets last year. In three starts, he had a 4.08 ERA and 1.36 WHIP that was inflated by walking eight over 17 2/3 innings.

The Mets may have thrived against right-handed pitching last season, but the Phillies’ lineup also was very good against southpaws. Philadelphia ranked fifth in MLB in 2020 with an .815 OPS. It helps when your best hitter (Bryce Harper) is left-handed and has an .826 career OPS against southpaws.

The Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter this season, and that was Atlanta’s Max Fried back on Opening Day. Harper (hitting third), shortstop Didi Gregorius (sixth) and center fielder Adam Haseley (eighth) were the only lefties in the lineup, and there’s a chance Roman Quinn gets the start over Haseley.

Regardless of who hits eighth, the Phillies’ top five in the order of Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm is solid and can do damage against any southpaw, especially a relatively inexperienced one like Peterson.

Philadelphia faced Peterson once last season, and he only lasted two innings, allowing five runs on three hits and four walks.

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Mets-Phillies Pick

Both lineups match up well with the handedness of the opposing start and I think both are close in terms of quality at this point.

The Phillies are heavily favored with Nola on the mound so as someone interested in backing him, PointsBet has the Phillies -0.5 through five innings at +100.

Pick: Phillies -0.5 5-inning line (+100)

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