MLB Odds & Picks: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (Friday, Sept. 25)

MLB Odds & Picks: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (Friday, Sept. 25) article feature image
Credit:

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Dinelson Lamet #29 of the San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Odds

Padres Odds -150 [Bet Now]
Giants Odds +128 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 6.5 (-107/-114) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Friday at 4 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants close out the regular season with a four-game series at Oracle Park. The Padres have already clinched a playoff berth while the Giants are clinging to the final wild card spot with the Phillies and Brewers hot on their tail.

While you could say that the Padres don’t have much to play for, right-hander Dinelson Lamet will be looking to to stay sharp leading into October baseball. There are no throwaway outings for a potential playoff starter like Lamet this late in the season and with several Padres still fighting for the National League home run crown, expect them to give a quality effort tonight.

Lamet Looking to Stay Hot

Lamet is 3-1 with a 2.07 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. While his 2.51 FIP points to almost a half-run regression, most pitchers would sign for for that given the quality in his numbers this year.

In September, Lamet has really turned it up a notch as he’s delivered a quality start in each of his four outings. In 27 innings, he’s only given up five earned runs and according to FanGraphs, his last start was his highest rated runs above average allowed on pitches thrown this season.

It’s not often that you see a pitcher like Lamet who throws his off-speed pitch more than his fastball. Lamet throws his slider 53% of the time and batters have a 48.6% whiff rate against that pitch.

To get an idea of how filthy that pitch is, batters are hitting just .085 against it with an xWOBA of just .178.

This will be his fourth appearance against the Giants and he’ll be facing a lineup that has 39 at-bats against him with a .154 AVG / .244 OBP / .333 SLG slash line.

Anderson’s Inconsistency

With their playoff berth still in the balance, the Giants will hope Tyler Anderson can give them a quality performance. Anderson is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. As far as his predictive numbers are concerned, Anderson sports a 4.41 FIP which is just slightly lower than his current ERA.

While Anderson had some good outings, he’s been unable to string together consecutive quality performances. He allowed one-run in a complete game against the Diamondbacks last month but followed that up with seven earned runs in his next start. That’s sort of been the trend for the Giant left-hander and he could be worthy of another fade tonight given that his last outing was a positive one where he didn’t allow an earned run.

Per FanGraphs, three of Anderson’s four pitches this season were rated as below average in runs allowed except for his changeup which graded out at 2.9 runs above average.

That could work to the Padres favor as FanGraphs has them 4.1 runs above average against that pitch.


Check out our new MLB PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.


Betting Analysis

My model projects Lamet as almost a 2:1 favorite in a neutral park. At the current price of -143, I think we’re getting a bit of a discount with the Padres as the visiting team. While Lamet hasn’t had many decisions go his way, the Padres are a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts.

This is a tough spot for the Giants to go into this doubleheader expecting to win both games. I’d expect the Padres to have more of their A-lineup in game one against the left-hander especially when you consider their power from the right side of the plate with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Will Myers.

Machado leads all three players with 16 home runs while Tatis Jr. has hit 15 long balls and Myers has pitched in with 14.

That competition between the three players is also something to watch in this game and I expect the bats to be out tonight in full support of Lamet.

I can only look to the away team in this spot so I’ll risk a half-unit of my bankroll to back the favored Padres. I would play this up to -155.

The Bet: Padres moneyline -150  (risking 0.5 unit)

[Bet the Padres at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

How would you rate this article?