The Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins on June 14, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Nationals Prediction
- Marlins vs Nationals picks: Over 9 (+100 | Play to -110)
My Marlins vs Nationals best bet is Over 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Nationals Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 100o / -120u | +115 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 100o / -120u | -135 |
Marlins vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cade Gibson (MIA) | Stat | RHP Trevor Williams (WSH) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 3-7 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 0.93 / 3.92 | ERA / xERA | 5.91 / 3.97 |
| 2.61 / 3.66 | FIP / xFIP | 4.01 / 4.31 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 9% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 52.5% | GB% | 38% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 105 |
Tony Sartori's Marlins vs Nationals Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Long Afternoon for Their Bullpen
Left-hander Cade Gibson kicks off a bullpen game for Miami. He’s had a terrific start to 2025, posting a 0.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 12 appearances on the mound.
However, his underlying metrics suggest regression is looming. The southpaw possesses a 3.92 expected ERA (xERA) and, if he qualified, would rank in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
If he starts this game poorly, the bullpen could be in for a long afternoon. Entering this matchup, the Marlins’ relief staff ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
The good news for this pitching staff is that it could receive a solid amount of run support. Miami may not be the most powerful team, but it can manufacture runs, ranking in the top half of the league in hits per game, batting average and stolen bases.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Williams' Struggles Continue
The Marlins possess an excellent track record against Trevor Williams. Through 42 combined plate appearances against Williams, the current Miami roster boasts a .385 batting average, a .615 slugging percentage and a .429 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Their analytics over that stretch are also impressive, with a .325 expected batting average (xBA), .574 expected slugging (xSLG) and .407 expected wOBA (xwOBA).
Meanwhile, Williams has struggled mightily this season. Through 13 starts, the right-hander is 3-7 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also poor, as Williams ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and strikeout rate.
Like Gibson, Williams is accompanied by a poor relief staff. This season, Washington’s bullpen ranks second to last in both ERA and xFIP.
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
The main concern with betting the over in this matchup is Washington’s below-average lineup. That said, it is in an advantageous position facing Miami in a bullpen game, given how poor the Marlins’ relief pitching has been this year.
Not that Washington’s bullpen has been any better; in fact, it’s been worse. Meanwhile, Williams has struggled, and his outlook is also poor against a team that has previously hit him exceptionally well.
Pick: Over 9 (+100 | Play to -110)
Moneyline
I lean toward Washington, but I don't want to back Williams.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Washington to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting over 9.
