The New York Mets (45-25) host the Tampa Bay Rays (37-32) on Saturday, June 14, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY and FanDuel Sports Sun.
The Mets lost 7-5 in the first game of this series on Friday but remain at the top of the NL East. Tylor Megill will start for the home team, and Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen will oppose him.
Find our Rays vs Mets prediction below, as well as Saturday probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Rays vs Mets Prediction
- Rays vs Mets picks: Under 7 (+100, BetMGM)
My Rays vs Mets best bet is the game total under 7. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Mets Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7 -120o / 100u | +120 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -120o / 100u | -145 |
Rays vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Drew Rasmussen (TB) | Stat | RHP Tylor Megill (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.22/3.17 | ERA /xERA | 3.76/3.48 |
| 3.24/3.32 | FIP / xFIP | 3.15/3.47 |
| 0.90 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 17.2 | K-BB% | 18.8 |
| 50.8 | GB% | 41.0 |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 102 | Location+ | 99 |
Rays vs Mets Preview, Prediction
This matchup between good starters and solid lineups should be interesting. Given the pitching upgrade, after yesterday's deceiving 7-5 score, this second game seems destined for a lower result.
Not to take anything away from Clay Holmes, who did great on Friday for the Mets. The bulk of the blame for the total 12 runs goes to relief pitcher Paul Blackburn, who allowed four runs in one-third of an inning, along with Tampa Bay starter Taj Bradley, who gave up five (unearned) runs.
Today, Drew Rasmussen and Tylor Megill should do better overall. Nevertheless, they will face some hurdles along the way.
Rasmussen ranks fifth in the majors in BABIP (.233) and eighth in ERA (2.22). The Rays starter did not allow runs in four of his past five outings and has not given up a home run since May 11.
His challenge will be to limit this powerful Mets lineup, which ranks fifth in MLB with 115 wRC+.
Megill will get the ball for New York. He has been solid this season with a 3.76 ERA and a 3.48 xERA, which suggests slight room for improvement.
Although Megill has struggled against great lineups, like the Yankees and Dodgers, Tampa Bay does not belong in that group. The Rays are 14th this season with a 102 wRC+ and fell to 17th in June with a 99 wRC+.
In addition, Citi Field ranks in the bottom six of Baseball Savant's Statcast Park Factors for run production, and our Bet Labs' Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams system also supports this pick.
Rays vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system targets unders in MLB games (Game 2 or later) where both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups.
However, public betting leans toward the over — likely expecting fireworks between top teams — which creates contrarian value on the under.
By capitalizing on low public support for the under (≤35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Pick: Under 7 (+100, BetMGM)
