The Arizona Diamondbacks (34-34) host the San Diego Padres (38-29) on Friday, June 13, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
In this battle of NL West rivals, Stephen Kolek will get the start for the Padres and Ryne Nelson will oppose him for the Diamondbacks.
Find my Padres vs Diamondbacks predictions and same-game parlay picks for Friday below.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Parlay Picks
- Manny Machado 1+ Hits
- Corbin Carroll 1+ Hits
- Jackson Merrill 1+ Hits
- Josh Naylor 1+ Hits
- Parlay Odds: +176
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet is on the Padres moneyline. If you're interested in a Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay, I like Manny Machado, Corbin Carroll, Jackson Merrill and Josh Naylor to each record one hit.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds, Lines
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | +117 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +144 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | -143 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Stephen Kolek (SD) | Stat | RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.00/3.76 | ERA /xERA | 4.60/4.03 |
| 3.98/4.29 | FIP / xFIP | 3.68/3.84 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 7.5 | K-BB% | 12.4 |
| 56.8 | GB% | 44.6 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 99 | Location+ | 99 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Preview, Predictions
Padres Betting Preview: Tatis & Merrill Slumping
The Padres just dropped two of three to the Dodgers, a series that could've gone either way, especially with the first game going to extra innings.
They exit that series two games back of the Dodgers and have split their last 10 games. They currently own the third NL wild card spot and are 4.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks as they head to Arizona.
Despite having several big names throughout their lineup, the Padres rank just 20th in runs scored. A pair of bats they need to get going are Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill.
After a hot start to the year, Tatis is hitting just .167 with a .526 OPS over the past 30 days. He has just one home run in his past 21 games.
Merrill began the year with at least one hit in 14 of his first 15 games. Even after returning from the IL, he had five consecutive multi-hit games. Since then, he's hitting just .218 with one home run and nine runs batted in.
However, he should be comfortable in the batter's box on Friday. Merrill is 3-for-7 with a double, home run and two runs batted in against Nelson.
Manny Machado also has a home run off Nelson. He's come alive recently with seven home runs over the past three weeks, although much of that damage has come against left-handed pitching, with seven of his 10 home runs against southpaws.
You can also expect to see Gavin Sheets in the lineup on Friday after he recorded a hit in all three games against the Dodgers. He's slashing .272/.331/.500 with 10 home runs and 31 runs batted in against right-handed pitching.
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Carroll & Naylor Lead Snakes
The Diamondbacks enter tonight's game fourth in runs scored, yet they find themselves at .500 because they're 25th in ERA.
That issue was further exacerbated when staff ace Corbin Burnes suffered an elbow injury. He'll miss the rest of the season with Tommy John surgery.
Nelson took Burnes' spot in the rotation, which seemed to be a good decision, considering he went 10 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. However, he allowed five earned runs in the first inning last time out against the Reds en route to seven in three innings for the day.
Great American Ballpark isn't the easiest park for most pitchers, but Nelson will look to bounce back on his home mound.
Meanwhile, his offense will take their swings against Kolek, who's in his first season as an MLB starter.
Kolek has been feast or famine, with four scoreless starts and three starts with four runs allowed or more. The Diamondbacks can make life difficult for any pitcher, as they've scored five runs or more in nine of their past 15 games.
They haven't seen much of Kolek, with just three combined hits in 13 at-bats. Carroll is responsible for two of those, with two singles in four at-bats against him.
Carroll has hit safely in each of his last five starts. He leads the team with 2.7 WAR and is tied for the team lead with 19 home runs.
Josh Naylor has been swinging a hot bat. He's 9-for-20 (.450) with a home run and eight runs batted in over his past six games.
Naylor is now at .302 with eight home runs and 45 RBI, which is tied for 13th in the National League.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
Tonight, the Padres and Diamondbacks will square off for the first time, and their 13 meetings could prove pivotal to the NL playoff race.
Last year, the Padres won the season series 7-6, but they took four of the six meetings in Arizona.
I like them to get another road victory tonight against the Diamondbacks, especially with their edge on the mound.
Kolek has allowed just six hits over 11 1/3 scoreless innings over his last two starts. San Diego is also 5-2 in his starts this season.
He has a tough task tonight, and I don't expect another scoreless outing. However, if the game is tight late, it'll dramatically favor San Diego.
The Padres are third in bullpen ERA, while the Diamondbacks are 27th in the category. The Padres bullpen is also fresh after they had an off day on Thursday.
The Diamondbacks are also just 18-17 at home this season.
With that in mind, I'll take the team with better pitching as an underdog.
I'll also be backing Machado, Merrill, Carroll and Naylor for hits.
Pick: Padres ML (+110, BetMGM)
