The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 14, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Pirates answered yesterday with a 2-1 win after losing the first game of this series 3-2 on Thursday. Today, they will have a tough task against the Cubs' southpaw, Matthew Boyd.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
- Pirates vs Cubs picks: Under 7.5 (-105, BetMGM)
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet is Under 7.5 (-105). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mike Burrows (PIT) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 5.00/4.76 | ERA /xERA | 2.89/3.46 |
| 5.41/4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 3.52/3.95 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 12.7% | K-BB% | 16.9 |
| 40.7 | GB% | 36.2 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 99 | Location+ | 105 |
Pirates vs Cubs Preview
Six out of the last eight Cubs games have finished under 7.5 runs, including the two previous contests in this series against the Pirates.
Having Matthew Boyd on the mound today facing the awful Pittsburgh offense is probably another step in the same direction.
The left-handed veteran boasts a 2.89 ERA this season and has not allowed more than two runs in his last three starts, going at least six innings in each of them.
The Pirates rank next-to-last in MLB in wRC+ with 81, but their production is even worse against lefties with 66 wRC+ this season.
Chicago, on the other side, has one of the best lineups in the majors, ranking third with 117 wRC+. However, in June, they are barely 14th with 96 wRC+. If that tendency continues against Mike Burrows and the Pirates, this will certainly be another low-scoring game.
Burrows will make his fifth start today and mostly owes his 5.00 ERA to his first two outings when he got pummeled. However, in his last two appearances combined, he only allowed two runs in 9.2 innings while striking out 12 batters.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
When the wind is blowing in at specific stadiums known for wind sensitivity (e.g., Wrigley Field, Fenway, Oriole Park, etc.), scoring tends to be suppressed due to reduced ball carry.
Betting the Under in these conditions—regardless of whether it's the regular season or postseason—has shown consistent profitability both in the short and long term.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105, BetMGM)
