Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 30: Can Red Sox Stay Relevant in Wild Card?
Gregory Fisher, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet Red Sox at Angels (10:07 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Now 5.5 games back of the Oakland Athletics (77-56) for the second AL Wild Card spot, the Boston Red Sox (72-62) are falling out of the playoff race with one month left to play in the season.
They have been treading water since the All-Star break, with a 23-21 record, and are slowly losing the chance to defend their 2018 World Series Championship.
With upcoming series against the Twins and Yankees looming, can the Red Sox take care of business against the sub .500 Angels (64-71), or will they continue to fall off the pace in the American League?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-3-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 3-2-1, and I finished up 1.02 units for the day.
It was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 55 cents against the sides that I played but saw the Astros under total move away from me by one half of a run.
MLB Betting Model for Friday, August 30
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Pirates and Rangers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins and Pirates as F5 plays.
I was able to lock in the Diamondbacks at a price where they showed value, but they have taken action and were bet down closer to even money as a home dog against the Dodgers.
Gallen continues to pitch well, with a 2.56 ERA and a 3.71 FIP. He owns an impressive 64.3% first-pitch strike rate and an even better 13% swinging-strike rate, and a polished arsenal which includes a four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup, and cutter:
Zac Gallen, Nasty 90mph Cutter (release/spin axis). 😨 pic.twitter.com/6IaiGE7LMM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 20, 2019
I’ll continue to back the Oakland Athletics against left-handed pitching, opting to avoid the Yankees bullpen by betting the A’s on the F5 spread.
Both teams crush left-handed pitching, with each ranking in the top five of wRC+ against southpaws. Oakland is 23-11 on the moneyline vs. lefty starters in 2019, generating a profit of 9.3 units.
Though Brett Anderson has the worst K-BB% amongst qualified starters, he also has the fifth-best groundball rate amongst those pitchers (53.5%) – which should help him to avoid longball trouble at Yankee Stadium.
As for the Angels-Red Sox matchup, I’ll be siding with the home dog.
Nathan Eovaldi has lost his 2018 form – seeing his zone% decline by 6.6%, and his swinging strike rate decline by nearly 2% despite maintaining excellent fastball velocity (97.8 mph).
Batters have stopped swinging at his pitches in general; particularly the ones outside of the zone:
Lastly, I would note that Unders have been extremely profitable on Fridays in 2019 (55.7%, +27 units); with bookmakers likely inflating the number with increased public action at the start of the weekend.
Per BetLabs, Look at how Unders have performed by weekday in 2019 – with Friday as the clear outlier:
I played three unders for Friday but saw value in games. I couldn’t play the under in the Athletics-Yankees game with two lefty starters taking the bump.
Bets (so far) for August 30
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+127) Game Moneyline
- Los Angeles Angels (+126) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (+0.5, -110) F5 Spread
- Under 10 (-115), Miami at Washington
- Under 10.5 (-110), Astros at Blue Jays
- Under 10.5 (-115), Red Sox at Angels
- Over 7.5 (+100), Padres at Giants
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 8/30
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.