The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on August 21, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Red Sox and Yankees will begin a four-game series in the Bronx Thursday, with New York leading Boston by 1.5 games in the Wild Card race and four games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the division. The Yankees have lost five-of-six in the season series, but are favoured to win the series opener with Luis Gil (5.14, 1-1) starting against Lucas Giolito (3.63 ERA, 8-2).
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees pick: Over 8 (-120, play to -125)
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is over 8 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -120o / 100u | -150 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.63/5.27 | ERA /xERA | 5.14/5.16 |
| 4.29/4.39 | FIP / xFIP | 3.76/4.24 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.64 |
| 11.9% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 36.1% | GB% | 28.2% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 101 | Location+ | 95 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Giolito Faces Yankees' High-Powered Lineup
Giolito has provided very stable results for the Red Sox this season, pitching to an ERA of 3.63 across 106 and 2/3 innings of work and generating 1.3 WAR. Prior to missing the entirety of the 2024 season, Giolito had finished with ERAs of 4.88 and 4.90 in the 2024 and 2023 seasons, respectively, and Boston's management certainly has to be pleased with the resurgence offered from the veteran righty this year.
Based on his underlying profile, it seems unlikely that Giolito will continue to produce above-average results the rest of the way. He holds an xERA of 5.27 and an xFIP of 4.39. His strikeout minus walk rate is down to 11.9% compared to a career average of 15.8%, and his Stuff+ of 92 and Pitching+ of 93 are both career-worst marks.
In six starts since the All-Star break, Giolito has pitched to an ERA of 4.19 and holds an xFIP of 5.30. He's allowed an xBA of .274 in that span, and his strikeout rate has dropped to 15%. His Stuff+ of 90 and Pitching+ of 90 in that span are also both slightly below average compared to the rest of his season.
Boston's relievers have pitched to the seventh-best ERA in MLB over the last 30 days; however, they rank 26th in xFIP and hold the seventh-lowest strikeout minus walk rate in that span.
Since July 1st, the Red Sox have held the seventh-best wRC+ in baseball and rank seventh in OPS. They hold a wRC+ of 110 versus right-handed pitching in that timeframe and rank ninth in hard-hit rate.
The Red Sox will be without one key bat in this matchup, as Wilyer Abreu is sidelined with a calf injury, and Abreu has been excellent versus righties this season, hitting to an OPS of .828.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Looking to Extend Winning Streak
Gil will be making his fourth start of the year on Thursday after being sidelined with a lat strain and will be looking to keep moving in the right direction after authoring his best performance of the year on Friday versus the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing only one earned run across five and 1/3 innings and earning a win.
Through a tiny sample of 14 innings, Gil has pitched to an xERA of 5.14 and an xFIP of 4.24. His average fastball velo of 96.2 is right on par with last season's average, though, and his Stuff+ rating of 105 is also comparable to last season's mark. He's had some issues with command, walking 13.1% of batters, but it seems reasonable to believe that as he continues to shake the rust off, he will trend towards better than average results.
While the talent on board suggests the Yankees' bullpen should be one of the best in MLB, it has struggled to an ERA of 4.72 over the last 30 days and an ERA of 4.21 since the trade deadline.
The Yankees' high-powered lineup has been on fire during the team's current five-game winning streak, averaging 8.6 runs per game. Since the All-Star break, New York has hit to a wRC+ of 113 overall and 108 versus right-handed pitching. It holds the highest wRC+ versus right-handed pitching throughout the entirety of the season and holds the highest wRC+ in baseball versus righties dating back to the start of the 2024 campaign.
Trade deadline acquisition Jose Caballero has provided a spark to the bottom of the lineup, as he's hit .333 with an on-base percentage of .400 in 21 PAs as a Yankee.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
While it does seem likely that Gil will continue to trend into better form as he gets back up to speed, a total of 8 still appears to be too low given the form of these offenses.
Boston's 26-16 run since July 1st has put it in a good spot to earn a playoff berth, and its offense has powered those strong results. The Red Sox hold strong splits versus righties recently and will provide a tough matchup for Gil in a game at Yankee Stadium.
Giolito appears to be one of the luckier starters in baseball this season, and his underlying metrics have been even worse of late. He faces arguably the toughest spot in baseball for a right-handed starter Thursday, taking on the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and should struggle to succeed in this matchup.
Pick: Over 8 (-120, Bet365; play to -125)
Moneyline
At -150 my lean would be with New York, as Gil should prove to be the superior of the two starters by a fairly significant margin this season.
Run Line (Spread)
At +145 my lean would be backing the Yankees to cover the run-line.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting the game to feature over 8 runs is my favorite play from this matchup.
Red Sox vs Yankees Parlay
- Giolito Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Giolito Over 4.5 Hits Allowed
- Yankees F5 Moneyline
Parlay odds: +144 (DraftKings)
While it's a low price for a three-leg parlay, +190 looks worthy of a smaller bet given the high correlation of this bet. In each of Giolito's last three road starts versus better-than-average lineups, he's allowed over 2.5 ER and over 4.5 hits, and it seems reasonable to expect that trend to continue versus the league's most productive lineup versus RHP.
While I'm not sold on Gil offering an entirely dominant outing, if he's spotted at least three runs of support early on, I like the Yankees chances of winning the first five enough to add that third leg to the bet given that it moves the price from +110 to +190.
Red Sox vs Yankees Betting Trends
