Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 19: Can Lucchesi, Padres Spoil Brewers Playoff Hopes?
Jake Roth, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Joey Lucchesi
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Thursday's slate of games, including how to bet the San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (4:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
With 10 regular-season games remaining for the majority of MLB clubs, every game is a playoff game for the teams still in contention.
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves tied with the Chicago Cubs – both for second place in the Wild Card, where they are each three games ahead of the Mets and Phillies, and second place in the NL Central; three games behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
If the season were to end today, the Brewers and Cubs would compete in a one-game playoff to see which team would face the Washington Nationals in the one-game Wild Card.
But the Brewers have a distinct advantage over the Cubs in the final ten games:
The Cardinals and Cubs will play seven times in that span – and the Brewers essentially control their own destiny if and when those clubs beat up on one another, beginning tonight.
All odds as of Thursday morning. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 5-1 against full-game moneylines and 1-2-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 6-4, and I finished up 1.27 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 29 cents against the sides that I played; netting as much as 28 cents against the Mets F5 moneyline (-147 to -175), while losing as much as 25 cents against the Padres moneyline (+130 to +155).
MLB Betting Model for Thursday, Sept. 19
Today, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels and Padres as full-game plays. The model also likes the Angels, Padres and Phillies as F5 plays.
In the early slate, I selected the Phillies over the Braves, when their moneyline was a bit higher, but I would still play them in the first five-innings (F5) portion of the game.
I was surprised to find Aaron Nola (3.62 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA) as such a big underdog to Mike Soroka (2.57 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA), whom I see as a comparable pitcher.
Soroka has a BABIP (.272) that should regress towards .300, and a strand rate (80.6%) that should regress towards 70% – creating the gap between his ERA and underlying metrics.
As for Aaron Nola, the Phillies righty started off the season in a rough patch, but his own underlying metrics have trended towards his career average throughout the course of the season:
Since the All-Star break, Nola has a 3.44 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, and a 3.96 SIERA.
His elite curveball has been mowing hitters down:
Aaron Nola, Filthy 80mph Curveball…and Sword of the Week Contender. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/hTuRdZJBbv
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 15, 2019
I projected the Phillies as a +111 underdog in the first five innings; essentially accounting for the difference in the home-field advantage – and still see 20 cents worth of line value
I also like the over 8.5 runs in that game, after the total was bet down from 9. I project the game for 9.5 runs.
I feel similarly about the Cardinals-Cubs affair this evening – projecting the game total for 8.7 runs compared to a listed total of 7. I had no choice but to bet the over at Wrigley Field.
As for the Brewers-Padres game this afternoon, I’m also siding with the road underdog.
I bet on Jordan Lyles in his last start, but his 2.39 ERA in nine starts with the Brewers is certainly due to regress towards his 4.44 FIP and 5.18 xFIP over that span.
Joey Lucchesi is coming off of an abominable performance in Colorado (eight runs on three homers in 3.2 innings)
His strikeouts are down, and his walks are up – but his hybrid changeup/curveball remains elite:
It’s always interesting to see Lucchesi add and subtract from the pitch, and he should have success against a Brewers lineup that ranks 21st against lefties, with a 98 wRC+ since the middle of July.
Fewer than 25% of the moneyline cash and tickets are behind the Padres on Thursday – and Lucchesi is an excellent spot for contrarian bettors.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 19
- Los Angeles Angels (+245) Game Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies (+146) Game Moneyline (1 unit)
- San Francisco Giants (+160) Game Moneyline (1 unit)
- San Diego Padres (+146) Game Moneyline (1 unit)
- Over 8 (-115), Phillies at Braves
- Over 7 (-120), Cardinals at Cubs
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/19
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.