Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 28: Will Padres Upset Kenta Maeda and the Dodgers?
Kelvin Kuo, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kenta Maeda
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet Dodgers at Padres (9:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Dodgers (87-47) have completely dominated their divisional opponents this season with a 37-19 record, winning by an average margin of 1.8 runs.
They’re 9-6 against the Padres, with a +18 run differential, and will be looking to pad their seven-game lead over the Braves for home-field advantage in the NL Playoffs.
My concern for the Dodgers come October is their bullpen. They have a plethora of starting pitchers and, as in years past, they plan to move several of them to relief roles in order to improve their bullpen quality.
While this move has worked in the past for pitchers such as Wednesday’s starter Kenta Maeda, it failed recently with top prospect Dustin May.
So while the Dodgers continue to run away with the regular season, I’m not so sure that they should be a clear favorite to represent the NL in the World Series for the third straight year.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 0-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 0-4, and I finished down 2.03 units for the day.
It was a negative day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost 17 cents against the Rays moneyline (+159 to +176) and saw the Mets over drop from 8.5 to 8.0.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, August 28
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Mariners, Marlins, Padres, Royals and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins and Royals as F5 plays.
I was able to lock in the Milwaukee Brewers on the F5 moneyline at a price where they showed an edge, but I also like the over 8.5 in the afternoon game today.
Not only did I project a weather-neutral total at 9.07 runs, but there are also a few trends worth noting including plate umpire Tom Woodring, who has had a noticeable lean to the over in his young career: 57-38-5 (60%, +16 units, 16.7% ROI).
What’s more – the wind is blowing out to left field at Miller Park today, at speeds of more than 16.5 mph. I’m uncertain if that is actually beneficial at a retractable roof stadium like Milwaukee has where, when the roof is open, it provides plenty of cover over the top of the stadium to block the effect of the wind.
As for some other model recommended plays where I still see line value, I played the Royals on the F5 moneyline, and the Blue Jays, Padres and White Sox on the full game moneyline.
With the latter two plays on Chicago and San Diego, you’re in a spot to beg against the public with a team coming off of a loss:
That system, which also applies to the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, is 54-55 in 2019; generating a profit of over 25 units with a 23.6% return on investment
Trey Wingenter will start for the Padres, who will likely use Matt Strahm or Luis Perdomo as their bulk pitcher.
The six-foot-seven Wingenter never fails to bring the intensity:
Trey Wingenter, Resting Pitch Face. pic.twitter.com/nRmCmrxBRE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 14, 2019
Or his wicked slider – which he throws 46% of the time:
Wingenter K'd Donaldson with a Filthy 87mph Slider. pic.twitter.com/ab79uasqz1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 14, 2019
After a career-best 2018, Kenta Maeda has regressed towards 2017 levels – still an above-average pitcher but not quite the level of the No. 2 type starter that he pitched to last season:
I have written about Jakob Junis and his slider-heavy ways before, so I won’t rehash all of that here – just know that he throws his slider 5% more frequently than any other starter (44.6% – Clayton Kershaw is second at 39.5%) and ranks eighth in total slider value (+11.7).
I like when pitchers establish an identity, and Junis owns a 3.91 ERA and 3.89 FIP since the All-Star break.
There isn’t much of a gap in xFIP between Junis (4.57) and Athletics starter Tanner Roark (4.48), so I’ll look to back the home pitcher at a big plus-number.
Bets (so far) for August 28
- Chicago White Sox (+169) Game Moneyline
- Kansas City Royals (+146) F5 Moneyline
- Milwaukee Brewers (+135) F5 Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+168) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+139) Game Moneyline
- Over 8.5 (-110), Cardinals at Brewers
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 8/28
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.