Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/23: The Play to Make In Angels-Dodgers
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kenta Maeda
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet Angels-Dodgers.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Boston Red Sox (55-46) are 11-6 in July and playing the best they have all year as we head into the home stretch of the 2019 season.
Including tonight, they still have nine games remaining against the Rays (57-46), who are currently one game in front of Boston in the wildcard hunt (though neither team would make the playoffs if the season ended today).
Cleveland (58-41) and Oakland (57-44) sit atop the AL wildcard standings, which has six contenders vying for two spots, so any personnel moves made between now and July 31 could have a major impact on the race.
In a year where the over has been king, Monday was the coronation. Overs finished 9-0-1 against the closing number, with numerous bad beats involved.
The Cardinals and Pirates scored four runs through nine innings before putting up seven combined runs in the 10th inning. With the scored tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 7th inning, that game was already 91% likely to finish under the total of 9.
Tyler Saladino, who is hitting .130 this season (career .228) hit his second go-ahead grand slam in as many days, putting a 4-1 game in the bottom of the eighth inning at 5-4 and over the total of 8.5.
In the late games, the Giants and Cubs scored four runs in the eighth inning to put a 3-2 game at 5-4 and over the total of 8.5.
And the Mariners and Rangers each added a run in their final frames of Seattle’s 7-3 victory, cashing the over 9.5 in the process.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-2 against full-game moneylines and 2-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 2-4, and I finished down 2.27 units for the day, as I ended up re-playing two of those losing unders.
It was an entirely positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 40 cents against the Mariners F5 moneyline (+100 to -140), 21 cents against the Twins F5 moneyline (+109 to -112) and 4 cents against the Rays moneyline (+115 to +111).
The Pirates-Cardinals under dropped from 9.5 to 9.0, the Mariners-Rangers under dropped from 10.0 to 9.5 and the juice on the Astros-A’s under swung 25 cents in my favor (from +100 to -125).
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, July 23
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Cardinals, Giants, Orioles, Rays, Royals and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Orioles, Rays, Royals and Tigers, in addition to the Marlins as F5 plays.
Overall, I’m not high on today’s slate.
Early sharp action has keyed on the Cubs, Pirates and White Sox, giving me sufficient enough reason not to play the Cardinals, Giants or Marlins.
The Orioles and Royals are both in prime contrarian spots as non-public road underdogs:
That system has produced an 8.1% return on investment in 2019 despite a 22-34 record. As of writing, the Los Angeles Angels also fit the criteria for their Tuesday game against the Dodgers.
Orioles starter Dylan Bundy has been dealing with a knee issue, but that doesn’t explain why he has allowed 62 home runs in 49 starts (2.12 HR/9) since the beginning of the 2018 season.
Royals starter Danny Duffy flashed potential between the 2016 and 2017 seasons with a 3.64 ERA, a 3.66 FIP and a 3.8 K/BB ratio. Over the past two seasons, Duffy has a 4.64 ERA, 4.63 FIP and 2.07 K/BB ratio.
His average fastball velocity has declined from a peak of 95.5 mph in 2016, down to 92.7 mph in 2019.
Speaking of fastball velocity, how has Chris Sale been looking of late?
Sale allowed two hits and two walks against 12 strikeouts in his last outing against the Blue Jays on July 18, but his fastball averaged just 91.5 mph — its lowest mark since April 28 when Sale last faced the Rays.
In his three starts between June 26 and July 13, Sale averaged 94.0 mph on his fastball; he’s averaged 93.0 mph for the season.
Sale has started throwing his slider more frequently in recent seasons, to the point where it’s now his most-used pitch (38.6%):
Sale’s slider velocity from his last outing (77.5 mph) confirms that his velocity was down across the board, as that pitch typically sits around 79-80 mph.
As I mentioned on Monday, though they are now just 4-4 during the 2019 season, the Rays are easily the most-profitable home underdog in our database, netting $100 bettors a profit of +37 units overall despite a 180-187 historical record.
However, that record improves to 104-97 (+36 units, 17.9% ROI) when the Rays are a home underdog against a divisional opponent.
Bets (So Far) for July 23
- Detroit Tigers (+133) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+152) Game Moneyline
- Under 8.5 (-110), Mets at Padres
- Over 9 (-115), Royals at Braves
- Under 9.5 (-115), Athletics at Astros
- Under 9.5 (-120), Angels at Dodgers
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/23
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.