Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 19: Count On Zac Gallen’s Arm in Diamondbacks-Rockies?
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zac Gallen
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet Rockies-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Astros (79-46) and Tigers (37-84) begin a series today; a matchup between the World Series favorite and arguably the worst team in baseball; both by record and offensive production.
Respectively, the two teams have the second-highest (+178) and second-lowest (-237) run differentials this season, behind only the Dodgers (+210) and Orioles (-261).
AL Cy Young hopeful Gerrit Cole (14-5, 2.87 ERA) was originally slated to start against Edwin Jackson (3-5, 8.62 ERA) this evening; and if so the Astros might have been the biggest moneyline favorite in baseball history with a line north of -500.
Instead, lefty Wade Miley (11-4, 3.11 ERA) will take the ball for the Astros, who are listed as a -400 favorite by some books.
Though the Tigers have an abysmal 101-182 (35.7%) record since the beginning of 2018, they are 29-39 (42.6%) against left-handed starters and have turned a three-unit profit on the moneyline against southpaws over that span.
They do hit lefties (86 wRC+, 25th) slightly better than they hit righties (74 wRC+, 30th) but Miley has been one of my favorite pitchers to back over the past two seasons (29-12, +$1,065, 26% ROI) and I’m willing to use the Astros against Jackson (8.13 FIP) as a parlay piece.
Who should we pair them with?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 0-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 6-2, and I finished up 2.23 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained four cents overall against the sides that I played, netting as much as 20 cents against the Astros spread (-110 to -130) while losing as much as 15 cents against the Reds moneyline (+149 to +164).
MLB Betting Model for Monday, August 19
Today, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and zero moneylines for the first five innings (F5).