Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 19: Count On Zac Gallen’s Arm in Diamondbacks-Rockies?

Aug 19, 2019 07:00 PM EDT

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zac Gallen

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet Rockies-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

The Astros (79-46) and Tigers (37-84) begin a series today; a matchup between the World Series favorite and arguably the worst team in baseball; both by record and offensive production.

Respectively, the two teams have the second-highest (+178) and second-lowest (-237) run differentials this season, behind only the Dodgers (+210) and Orioles (-261).

AL Cy Young hopeful Gerrit Cole (14-5, 2.87 ERA) was originally slated to start against Edwin Jackson (3-5, 8.62 ERA) this evening; and if so the Astros might have been the biggest moneyline favorite in baseball history with a line north of -500.

Instead, lefty Wade Miley (11-4, 3.11 ERA) will take the ball for the Astros, who are listed as a -400 favorite by some books.

Though the Tigers have an abysmal 101-182 (35.7%) record since the beginning of 2018, they are 29-39 (42.6%) against left-handed starters and have turned a three-unit profit on the moneyline against southpaws over that span.

They do hit lefties (86 wRC+, 25th) slightly better than they hit righties (74 wRC+, 30th) but Miley has been one of my favorite pitchers to back over the past two seasons (29-12, +$1,065, 26% ROI) and I’m willing to use the Astros against Jackson (8.13 FIP) as a parlay piece.

Who should we pair them with?

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 0-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My plays went 6-2, and I finished up 2.23 units for the day.

It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained four cents overall against the sides that I played, netting as much as 20 cents against the Astros spread (-110 to -130) while losing as much as 15 cents against the Reds moneyline (+149 to +164).

MLB Betting Model for Monday, August 19

All odds as of Monday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Monday.

Today, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and zero moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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