MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals, Including Lance Lynn & Marco Gonzales (Monday, August 23)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Marco Gonzales
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Lance Lynn — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|White Sox vs. Blue Jays||White Sox (-115)|
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
The current betting favorite for the American League Cy Young award resides on the South Side of Chicago, as Lance Lynn has put together a dominant season. The 34-year old is 10-3 this season with a pristine 2.26 ERA, which leads the AL and ranks third in the majors.
The pitching arsenal for Lynn is unique in that he basically just relies on three different versions of his fastball, with his three most-used pitches being a four-seamer, cutter, and sinker. All three pitches have been dominant and opponents have just a .188 expected batting average and .250 xwOBA against him this year.
Most of Lynn’s strikeouts have come via the four-seam fastball, and his 10.26 K/9 rate this season is well above his 9.03 career average. Lynn has racked up at least six strikeouts in 16 of his 22 starts this year.
Toronto has one of the best offenses in the league but when Lynn faced them in June, he shut the Jays down for one run and four hits over seven innings, and most importantly for our purposes he tallied nine strikeouts.
I am expecting a great outing from Lynn after getting himself ejected last game. As long as he keeps his belt on today, I like him to go over this strikeout total.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Marco Gonzales — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)
|Mariners vs. Athletics||Athletics (-132)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
Look, Marco Gonzales is not a very good pitcher. He has just a 5-5 record this season and holds a 4.10 ERA with a 5.77 xERA. Opponents have knocked him around for a .273 xBA and .360 xwOBA, both ranking in the bottom-10% of the league. However, he has been surprisingly dominant recently.
In his last six starts, Gonzales is 4-0 with a 1.43 ERA and has held teams to two runs or fewer in six straight starts. One of those outings came against the Athletics, when he pitched into the sixth inning and allowed just two runs.
Sure, three of his last four starts came against the Texas Rangers. But he dominated them, allowing just two runs in 20 1/3 innings, including a nine-inning complete game on August 12. His other recent start came against the Yankees, and he pitched into the seventh inning, allowing just three hits and no runs.
This is more of a gut pick than a numbers pick. Gonzalez is not a big strikeout guy, and has just a 7.35 K/9 rate. But he is pitching really well right now and comes into the game with a ton of confidence. He has pitched into the sixth inning in five straight starts and if we can get him to complete six frames, I like him to go over this total.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10