Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, May 7.
The goal for Opening Pitch is usually to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. I have picks for Wednesday, May 7, in my betting card at the end of the article, but I will focus on analyzing team MLB futures markets in this space today.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Below is my updated team futures analysis, alongside my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
MLB Predictions, Futures Picks for World Series, Playoffs
I have not properly analyzed team futures in about six weeks — when I last updated my team futures guide on March 24 — and figured this was a good time to dive back into those markets as the league reaches the quarterfinals of the regular season.
To see where teams currently stand, I took an average of publicly available projections from FanGraphs (including their Playoff Odds, ATC (provided by Ariel Cohen), The BAT (provided by Derek Carty), and OOPSY (provided by Jordan Rosenblum), and Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA (to find consensus value selections).
While some teams may stand out in certain projections compared to others — and I will highlight some of those outlier projections — the composite power of these projection systems has proven more predictive than any one system individually.
We'll analyze teams as we did in the preseason — division by division.
NOTE: This data is based on standings through Monday, May 5, and does not reflect results from Tuesday, May 6.
AL East Futures
The AL East has not been as strong as anticipated, losing an average of 2.7 wins as a division, compared to their preseason projections (down from 84.7 to 82).
Two of the five projections would make the Yankees odds-on favorites to repeat as division champions. Still, the consensus projection shows them as a value bet to miss the playoffs (projected +222, listed +275), which is mainly correlated to significant injury risk throughout their 26-man roster, and limited depth on their 40-man. roster
Projections like the Blue Jays or Rays to steal the division at long odds. PECOTA puts them as high as 18.3% (+478 implied) and 14.5% (+590), respectively.
There is more value on those teams in the division market than the make or miss the playoffs market. However, you can consider Toronto at +250 or higher (projected +218) now that its signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a big extension.
Still, the Blue Jays are scrambling for starting pitching depth, and I'm uncertain that their roster will survive 162 games.
The Rays seem much more intriguing from an upside standpoint, with a deep, high-upside rotation (including Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Taj Bradley), Shane McClanahan on the mend, big arms in their bullpen, and their most exciting position player group in years, featuring the electric Chandler Simpson and powerful 21-year-old Junior Caminero.
Free-agent signing Ha-Seong Kim (current injured), or their top prospect, Carson Williams, should displace Taylor Walls at shortstop by season's end.
OOPSY has the Rays at 13.8% (+625 implied) to win the AL East (+1300 listed), 39% (+156 implied) to make the postseason (+250 listed) and 2.4% (+4067 implied) to win the World Series (+6000 at Caesars). I'd consider upside plays on Tampa Bay in any of those markets, but its AL Pennant odds (+2500) are most appealing — this is a team that should peak in the second half of the season, if it can keep the pitching staff together.
I have a postseason ticket at +230 and an AL Pennant ticket at +3000 on Tampa Bay from the preseason — bet those down to +250 and +2000, respectively. Consider adding divisional odds at +900 or better.
AL Central Futures
Projections view the Royals as the best divisional value bet in the AL Central with consensus odds of +409 (+500 listed) and a peak projection of 26% (+283 implied) from The BAT.
Still, their divisional odds offer significantly more value than their odds to make the postseason (consensus +101, listed +100).
That said, I'd rather bet the Tigers to win the World Series (projected +1384, with a peak of 8.1% of +1135 from PECOTA vs. +2500 listed) or the AL Pennant (listed +700) than the Royals to overtake them. Kansas City has had very fortunate injury luck, but it has minimal depth on the 40-man roster or in the high minors.
Like the preseason, the Guardians to miss the playoffs may be the best value bet on the board at consensus odds of -197 (as high as 76%, -317 implied from OOPSY) vs. listed odds of -110.
The most optimistic projection, from FanGraphs, only has the Guardians at 42.5% (-135 implied) to make the postseason, which is still an edge of 5%. And their schedule for the remainder of May is pretty tricky, including a two-week stretch that features a 10-game road trip before a home series against the Dodgers. Bet Cleveland to miss the playoffs, up to -150.
PECOTA wouldn't count the Twins out of the divisional race (projected 24.5%, +308 implied) — especially now that Royce Lewis has returned from injury.
The consensus projection views Minnesota as a value bet both in the divisional market (listed +1100) and in the playoff market (projected +184, listed +225). Still, the Twins' owners (the Pohlad family) are in the process of shopping the team, and the organization has failed to invest in or properly optimize its roster in recent years.
Don't invest in a team that refuses to invest in itself.
AL West Futures
The Mariners have moved from a coin-flip playoff team in the preseason to north of 80% consensus after a hot start, including an offensive breakout. Every projection system thinks that the Mariners should be odds-on favorites to win the AL West (low of -105 from ATC and high of -209 from PECOTA), yet they are as high as +130. I would bet them down to +105 following Tuesday's come-from-behind win in Sacramento.
Additionally, projections would lay their odds to make the postseason (listed -240, low projection of 77.4% or -342 implied). You should consider betting the Mariners to win the World Series (projected +1066, high of +793 from PECOTA vs. +2500 listed) or to win the AL Pennant (listed +1000) with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert still working their way back from injury.
The Mariners and Rays might have the two best starting rotations in the AL come playoff time. Their young, improving position player groups could peak over the second half of the season. Additionally, both teams have excelled at developing explosive, high-leverage arms for their bullpens.
Our Rangers' futures could be dead in the water. Projections view Texas as a value bet to miss the postseason (projected -122, listed +105). Their offense has drastically underperformed, leading to the firing of offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker. Their completely overhauled bullpen has ranked as a bottom-10 unit.
The Athletics were a popular bet to make the postseason, but only their most optimistic projection (25%, +298 implied from FanGraphs) shows value relative to listed odds (+400). Aside from that projection, the remaining consensus is +575.
NL East Futures
PECOTA would put the Mets as high as -140 to win the NL East, but the remaining projections have them south of 50% (+157 combined).
The BAT likes the Phillies (projected +158, listed +210), but the remaining projections put them at +294 to win the NL East.
Every projection system shows value in the Braves (low projection of +313, high of +210 vs. +425 listed) to overcome a five-game divisional deficit, with Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. expected to return by the end of May.
Moreover, those projections show value in their odds to make the playoffs (-250 consensus, low of -195, high of -327 vs. -135 listed) and to win the World Series (+1117 consensus, low of +1393, high of +852 vs. +1500 listed).
If you didn't invest in the Braves in the preseason, I would strongly consider jumping in now.
NL Central Futures
Despite losing Justin Steele for the season, the Cubs look like a formidable contender in the National League, with potentially the best lineup in baseball one through nine on both sides of the baseball.
