The Boston Red Sox (19-19) host the Texas Rangers (18-19) on Thursday, May 8, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Red Sox clawed back from a two-run deficit in game two against the Rangers to even the series at one game apiece. Who will prevail in Thursday's rubber match?
Continue below for my Rangers vs Red Sox prediction, as well as probable pitchers (Jack Leiter and Brayan Bello), betting trends and more.
My Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction
- Rangers vs Red Sox picks: Rangers Moneyline (play to +100)
My Rangers vs Red Sox best bet for Thursday is the Rangers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Red Sox Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9.5 102o / -122u | +114 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9.5 102o / -122u | -135 |
Rangers vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| Jack Leiter (TEX) | Stat | Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.58 / 3.94 | ERA /xERA | 2.55 / 5.38 |
| 4.05 / 4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 5.46 / 4.14 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 2.1 | K-BB% | 1.7 |
| 39.6% | GB% | 54.9% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 96 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Rangers vs Red Sox Preview
Rangers Betting Preview: Leiter; Offensive Woes
The Rangers have been the most disappointing team in baseball this year. Last year, you could attribute their struggles to World Series fatigue and injuries.
This year? There isn’t an excuse. Just flat out terrible play by Texas to this point of the season.
One of the pieces the Rangers could use a boost from is rookie right-hander Jack Leiter, who started the year with 10 strong innings prior to a blister injury that sidelined him. Since returning, Leiter has allowed eight runs in 7 2/3 innings.
I’m still buying stock in Leiter.
He enters with a 4.58 ERA, but his 3.94 xERA and 4.05 FIP signal better days are coming. Leiter is one of the nastiest pitchers in MLB in terms of pure stuff, boasting a strong 110 Stuff+ with a fiery 98-100 mph fastball.
Pitching has been the only thing holding the Rangers above water.
Texas’ offense ranks 22nd with a 91 wRC+ since April 15. Of larger concern, the Rangers rank bottom five in home runs, walk rate, and strikeout rate in that span.
Corey Seager started off shaky, but he leads Texas with a 160 wRC+ in his last 10 games. The other hot-hitting Rangers bat is Wyatt Langford, who's morphed into one of the premier hitters in baseball.
The problem is that the Rangers are getting virtually nothing from Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and Joc Pederson. While a team can survive with a couple of key lineup pieces struggling, it's nearly impossible to be a good offense when four key cogs have a wRC+ below 85 with four homers.
Red Sox Betting Preview: Don't Buy Bello
The Red Sox have waited for Brayan Bello to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation arm, and it’s finally happening — at least on the surface.
After starting the year on the injured list, Bello has returned and posted a 2.55 ERA through 17 1/3 innings (three starts).
Is it sustainable? I’m skeptical.
The same problems Bello had in the past are still present. In fact, his K/9 is down from last year (8.48 vs. 6.11) and his HR/9 is way up (1.05 vs. 1.53). His BB/9 is comparable year over year (3.55 vs 3.57).
It makes sense why Bello’s xERA sits at 5.38 with a 5.46 FIP compared to his appetizing mid-2s ERA. The difference for Bello? He’s stranding a wholly unsustainable 95.7% of runners. Once that levels out, Bello’s regression could hit like a ton of bricks.
While the Rangers offense is among the worst in MLB, the Red Sox offense is terrifying. They have the seventh-best wRC+ in MLB since April 15, largely led by hard contact and homers. Boston has 29 home runs, which is the second most in that span while showcasing a dazzling .201 Isolated power.
The addition of Alex Bregman is what the doctor ordered for the Red Sox. The former Astros star has a 170 wRC+ on the season and a 227 wRC+ in his last 18 games.
However, the Red Sox are just 19-19 despite their offense posting elite numbers. That speaks to how big of an issue the pitching is.
For reference, Boston’s bullpen gave away three games in the last week and the rotation is a huge question mark despite their big addition of Garrett Crochet.
Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love backing the Rangers to secure the series win at Fenway Park. I expect both teams to eventually perform better, but the Rangers offense has shown gradual signs of improvement while things could get worse for Bello and the Red Sox pitching staff.
Leiter is filthy — he should be able to neutralize the Red Sox elite offense with his equally elite fastball. If he can stay in the strike zone consistently, it'll be tough to string together baserunners against him.
Give me the Rangers at plus money
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (play to +100)
Moneyline
As I explained above, the Rangers moneyline is my best bet for this game.
Run Line (Spread)
There's more value in backing the Rangers to win outright than cover the run line (+1.5, juiced to -185).
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
