After a successful Tuesday in the MLB home run props market, I'm back at it for Thursday, May 8, with more HR picks.
I'm targeting Kerry Carpenter in Game 1 of the Tigers vs Rockies doubleheader, and I have three dinger bets for the Phillies vs Rays game.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop picks and parlay for Thursday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 5/8
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:35 p.m. | |
| 3:35 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks, Odds for May 8
Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+575)
vs. Rockies (SP: LHP Kyle Freeland)
These odds are far too good.
While it is a lefty vs. lefty matchup, Kyle Freeland is an average matchup for southpaw power, while Kerry Carpenter has hit 26 homers across 120 games since the beginning of last season.
Also, Coors Field is a massive ballpark upgrade for Carpenter.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +500.
Junior Caminero Home Run (+525)
vs. Phillies (SP: LHP Jesus Luzardo)
Junior Caminero is having a good season, having already hit six homers in 36 games. He’s beginning to grade out as a 30-homer hitter.
This is an excellent spot to back him against Jesus Luzardo, who has been vulnerable against right-handed power hitters in his career. Luzardo’s only allowed 0.22 home runs per nine innings this season, but there’s no way his 2.5% home run to fly ball rate holds — I project him to finish the year with around 1.30 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched.
Tampa’s ballpark is excellent for power, and the ball should be flying with mid-80s temps and high humidity.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +450.
Bryce Harper Home Run (+360)
vs. Rays (SP: RHP Ryan Pepiot)
Bryce Harper isn’t the same home-run hitter he once was, but he’s still more than capable of a 30-homer season.
He’s in an excellent spot to nab one on Thursday.
Tampa’s stadium is favorable for lefty power with a short porch in right field, and — as mentioned — the weather should be ideal for hitting.
The matchup is also good against Ryan Pepiot, who has been crushed by lefty power this year. He’s allowed 1.86 home runs per nine innings pitched against the side.
I make the fair odds on this prop closer to +325.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+260)
vs. Rays (SP: RHP Ryan Pepiot)
These are crazy low odds, but I don’t care given the situation.
Kyle Schwarber is among baseball's best home run hitters, and this is an excellent matchup against Pepiot, who, as mentioned, is super vulnerable to left-handed power hitters.
Tampa’s right-field short porch and weather report is ideal for lefty slammers, and I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +200.
