The Minnesota Twins (17-20) host the Baltimore Orioles (13-22) on Thursday, May 8, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my Orioles vs Twins prediction and pick for Thursday below, as well as updated probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Editor's Note: This Orioles vs Twins preview for Thursday was written before Minnesota scratched scheduled starter Joe Ryan, who is out with illness. Bailey Ober gets the ball for Minnesota in Ryan's stead.
Orioles vs Twins Prediction
- Orioles vs Twins pick: Twins ML (-160 | Play to -175)
My Orioles vs Twins best bet for Thursday is the Twins moneyline. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Orioles vs Twins Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -112 / -108 | +136 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -112 / -108 | -162 |
Orioles vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dean Kremer (BAL) | Stat | RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 5.73 / 5.21 | ERA /xERA | 3.72 / 3.52 |
| 5.13 / 4.86 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86 / 4.16 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.34 |
| 7.9% | K-BB% | 13.9% |
| 38.3% | GB% | 32.3% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 102 | Location+ | 108 |
Tony Sartori’s Orioles vs Twins Preview
Why The Orioles Can Cover
The Orioles hand the ball to right-hander Dean Kremer, who should serve as a strong fade candidate. Through seven starts this season, Kremer is 3-4 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor.
Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
These issues are likely to continue. Through two starts against the Twins, Kremer is 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA.
Following Kremer is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. This season, Baltimore’s relief staff ranks 28th in ERA, 25th in fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 20th in wins above replacement (WAR).
Why The Twins Can Cover
Minnesota’s bullpen outranks Baltimore’s in each of those three categories. Not only will the Twins possess the relief pitching advantage, but they also hold the edge in starting pitching with right-hander Joe Ryan taking the mound.
Ryan sports a 2.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through seven starts this season.
His analytics suggest that regression is unlikely. Ryan ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate.
The pitching edge clearly goes to Minnesota, and so does the hitting. Entering this matchup, the Twins outrank the Orioles in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, OPS and stolen bases.
How To Make Orioles vs Twins Picks
Every advantage goes to Minnesota in this matchup. It possesses the stronger starter, bullpen and lineup.
The Twins are also playing on their home diamond, where they have performed exceptionally well this season. On the other hand, Baltimore has struggled on the road.
Finally, the return of Royce Lewis should only further widen Minnesota’s hitting advantage.
Pick: Twins Moneyline (-160 | Play to -175)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Twins moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Minnesota to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright ML price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but I don't trust Baltimore's lineup against Ryan.
