MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers vs. Cardinals, 2 Other Games
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Harrison Bader
- Sharp action has hit three games in particular on Wednesday's MLB slate: Angels-Rangers (7:05 p.m. ET), O's-Royals (8:10 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET)..
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages reveal which bets the pros are making.
For the second night in a row, sharps are finding the most value on the MLB slate through moneylines. Just as they did last night, they’ve caused significant line movement on three teams, with tonight’s plays ranging from 7:05 p.m. to 7:45 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
7:05 p.m. ET | Patrick Sandoval (0-1, 5.79 ERA) vs. Mike Minor (11-7, 2.94 ERA)
Grabbing an All-Star arm with a sub-3 ERA at -140 against a guy posting a 5.79 ERA through two career starts sounds like a pretty easy call. Perhaps that’s why Mike Minor and the Rangers are drawing 77% of bets tonight at home against the Halos.
As the general rule of thumb in sports betting goes, if a line looks too good to be true, it probably is. And if the sharp action on this game is any indication, the Rangers’ short line looks to be a perfect example of that.
Pros have been all over the Angels since opening, triggering three Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record market movement caused by sharp action — on LA at lines ranging from +120 to +117. That’s brought the Angels down from +130 to +115, and Texas from -140 to -125.
Sharp angle: Angels (moved from +130 to +115)
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
7:05 p.m. ET | Mike Montgomery (3-5, 4.63) vs. Aaron Brooks (2-7, 6.49 ERA)
A similar situation is taking place in Baltimore, as bettors are flocking to the lesser of two evils by piling on Mike Montgomery and the Royals. Seventy-four percent of bets, to be exact, have landed on KC, but just as was the case with the Rangers, the Royals’ line has still fallen from its opening number.
While just about any case of reverse line movement should serve as a giveaway of sharp action, SI Bet Signals have once again confirmed that wiseguys are behind the line move.
They’ve triggered two steam moves (at +110 and +105) and two reverse line moves (at +106 and +110) on the O’s, and we’ve seen no sign of professional activity going the other way.
With the sharps on their side, the Orioles have jumped the fence from an opener of around +110 to -108.
Sharp angle: Orioles (moved from +110 to -108)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET | Adrian Houser (5-5, 3.76 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (9-8, 4.33 ERA)
The only difference between this and the other two spots on tonight’s card is that the sharps aren’t fading the public quite on the same level here.
Overall betting action has been close to split, with the Cards taking a slight majority of tickets (52%) and money (57%). All else equal, that probably wouldn’t cause too much of a reaction from oddsmakers. It certainly shouldn’t result in a line dropping from -130 to a near-pick’em, but that’s exactly what’s happened to St. Louis.
Two more SI Bet Signals have revealed smart money hitting the Brew Crew, sending Milwaukee from as high as +130 (though most openers were in the +110 to +120 range) down to -103 — just a couple cents off a true pick’em.
Sharp angle: Brewers (moved from +115 to -103)