MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Athletics, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Jordan Lyles (25).
- Wiseguys are betting 3 games on Wednesday, headlined by Astros-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are getting down on Cubs-Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Athletics (10:07 p.m. ET)
Wiseguys gave a unit back to the house yesterday, cashing the Braves moneyline but losing the Cubs moneyline and Giants-Phillies over. Tuesday wasn’t all that bad for contrarian-minded sharps, as road teams profited +8.53 units and dogs and unders also produced a decent payout.
⚾️ Tuesday Recap
Road teams: 11-4, +8.53u
Underdogs: 7-8, +1.97u
>50% bets: 10-5, +2.75u
Unders: 9-6, +2.59u pic.twitter.com/mXMgGxGieA
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 31, 2019
Pro bettors will look to stay extra disciplined today, knowing that the 4 p.m. ET Trade Deadline could result in starting pitchers being scratched and roster shakeups.
>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Houston Astros (69-39) at Cleveland Indians (62-44)
7:10 p.m. ET | Jose Urquidy (1-0, 4.26 ERA) vs. Zach Plesac (5-3, 3.25 ERA)
Houston took the series opener 2-0 last night, handing public bettors a relatively sweat-less win (Astros closed -138 behind 69% of bets). Tonight, Average Joes don’t know which way to go. They love betting a powerhouse like Houston, but are also intrigued by Cleveland at home in a plus-money dog bounce back spot.
But sharps have taken a clear position.
This game opened with Houston listed as a -123 road favorite and Cleveland a +114 home dog. Moneyline bets are split right down the middle, yet we’ve seen the line move more than 20-cents toward the Astros (-123 to -145).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a cent or two if the tickets are split. So we know this movement was caused by respected sharps with an edge getting down on the ‘Stros.
Houston is getting 50% of bets but 65% of dollars and we’ve also tracked a big steam move on Houston at -136, further evidence of pro money siding with the road favorite.
The Astros also fit a pair of profitable Bet Labs systems. So far this season, non-division road favorites are 188-119 (61.2%), winning +19.64 units with a 6.4% ROI. Conference favorites with high totals (9 or higher) are 498-295 (62.8%), winning +43.86 units with a 5.5% ROI.
It doesn’t hurt that Chris Segal is the home plate umpire tonight. Since 2005, home teams have lost -15.96 units with Segal calling balls and strikes.
Sharp angle: Astros (moved from -123 to -145)
Chicago Cubs (56-50) at St. Louis Cardinals (57-49)
8:15 p.m. ET | Kyle Hendricks (7-8, 3.26 ERA) vs. Miles Mikolas (7-10, 4.19 ERA)
Professional bettors cashed bigly on the under last night, as the Cardinals edged the Cubs 2-1. Nearly 75% of bets took the over yet the total fell from 9 to 8.5, a clear indication of sharp reverse line movement on the under. Tonight, recency biased casual bettors are town on the total, but Goodfellas are going back to the under well.
This NL Central over/under opened at a low 8.5. Bets are split down the middle, yet we’ve seen the total fall down to 8. This downward movement was caused by a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the Under, with pros crushed under 8.5.
The under also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy, receiving 50% of bets but more than 90% of dollars. This is a clear indication of big dime wagers ($1000) expecting another low-scoring game.
Another reason pros love this under: the weather. The wind is blowing in at 6 MPH from dead-center, hopefully knocking down a few first-row homers into warning track outs.
Since 2005, when the wind is blowing in at 5 MPH or more the under has cashed at a 55% clip and produced +100.89 units won (6.1% ROI). Busch Stadium has been a sneaky profitable stadium for unders over the years. Since 2005, the under has gone 602-521 (53.6%), winning +40.21 units.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 8)
Milwaukee Brewers (56-52) at Oakland Athletics (61-47)
10:07 p.m. ET | Jordan Lyles (5-7, 5.25 ERA) vs. Brett Anderson (9-6, 4.05 ERA)
The Athletics edged the Brewers 3-2 in extra innings last night, handing contrarian under bettors (9.5 to 9, 25% of bets) an easy win. Tonight, the public sees Lyles (and his high ERA) making his Brew Crew debut and says “give me the over.”
But wiseguys know there’s much more to betting over/unders than simply ERAs. They’re buying low on another Interleague contrarian under.
This total opened at 9.5. Currently 70% of bets are taking the over, yet we’ve seen the line fall to 9. Why would the books drop the total to give public over bettors an easier shot at covering? No, they’re not being nice. If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
Wiseguys have been pummeling the Under 9.5 all morning and afternoon, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t tracked a single conflicting over play (or buyback), which means sharps are in agreement across the market with no dissenting opinions.
The Under also matches one of our top Bet Labs PRO systems: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (55.`1%, +195.84 units since 2005). Historically, when two good teams go head-to-head, they typically play tight, lower scoring games.
When the total is between 8.5 and 9.5 in late night Oakland games (10 p.m. ET or later), the under has gone 112-84 (57.1%), winning +23.41 units with an 11.6% ROI.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)