Wiseguys kept the good times rolling yesterday, going a perfect 3-0 with their Tuesday plays. Whether they're hot, cold or treading water, the blueprint never changes for the sharps: locate an edge and get down hard. Fearless but disciplined, always.
After analyzing Wednesday’s juicy 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +120 to +105)
Wiseguys can't quit the Snakes. And who could blame them? Arizona cashed for the sharps Monday night and Tuesday night so the pros are backing the Diamondbacks once again tonight.
The Pirates opened as a moderate -130 home favorite. The public says Pittsburgh is a good team and has to win at least one game in this series. But Goodfellas aren't falling into the Gambler's Fallacy trap. They smell a sweep.
Despite receiving 72% of bets, the Buccos have fallen from -130 to -114. What gives?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we've tracked six different steam and reverse line moves on the D-backs. This overload of smart money from pro bettors dropped Arizona from +120 to +106. We haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Pittsburgh.
The D-backs are receiving only 28% of bets but 49% of dollars — further evidence of big sharp wagers in their favor.
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Orioles (moved from -109 to -118)
The cellar-dwelling Orioles crushed the White Sox 9-1 last night. Conventional wisdom says the Orioles are terrible and can't possibly win two in a row. Fine by the sharps. They'll buy low on Baltimore to win another home game against an equally moribund Chicago squad.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a short -109 favorite. Currently 60% of bets are grabbing the plus-money with Chicago, but 60% of dollars are backing Baltimore — a classic pros vs. Joes discrepancy in favor of the O's.
Wiseguys crushed the Orioles twice, first at -107 and later at -114, triggering as pair of steam moves that caused market-wide movement toward Baltimore (-109 to -118).
Baltimore also finds itself in a profitable historical spot, as it matches the Bet Labs System, Bad Team After Win (+166.88 units since 2005).
An added bonus for sharps sweating the Birds: Chad Fairchild is the home plate ump. Since 2005, home teams have won 56.1% of the time with Fairchild calling balls and strikes.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
8:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Dodgers (moved from -110 to -114)
Wiseguys have no allegiances. They will get down on any team at any time if the value presents itself. Last night they cashed on the Cubs. Tonight they're betting against them.
This game opened with Los Angeles listed as a short -110 road favorite. Currently 56% of bets are taking the Cubs at home with a slight plus-money payout. However, despite this public support, the line has moved further toward the Dodgers (-110 to -114).
Los Angeles also enjoys a profitable bet vs. dollar discrepancy (44% of bets but 64% of money). We also tracked a big steam move on the Dodgers and haven't seen a single sharp play on Chicago.
Reading between the lines, it's clear that wiseguys are fading the trendy dog tonight at Wrigley Field.
