The Arizona Diamondbacks host the New York Mets on May 5, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Mets vs Diamondbacks picks: Over 9.5 (-105) | Play to -115
My Mets vs Diamondbacks best bet is Over 9.5 (-105). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -118 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Griffin Canning (NYM) | Stat | RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.61/3.93 | ERA /xERA | 5.82/3.35 |
| 3.27/3.58 | FIP / xFIP | 2.19/2.52 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 12.9 | K-BB% | 21.9 |
| 51.2 | GB% | 41.7 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Ducey’s Mets vs Diamondbacks Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Canning's Rise Anchors Surging Rotation
Griffin Canning has emerged as a reliable mid-rotation arm for the Mets, who have made a name for themselves as something of a pitching factory. The 28-year-old has rediscovered the ground ball by finding better spots with his four-seam fastball and slider, and it's helped him pitch around some issues with walks.
The Mets will certainly take the 10.6% walk rate if the nibbling turns out to help Canning transform into a useful pitcher. His strikeout rate has come up to 23.5% after resting at a lowly 17.6% a year ago, and by finding the black on the plate his Expected Slugging Percentage has dropped to .394 while his barrel rate sits a cool 2.3 points below league average.
Canning is certainly going to give up some contact in his starts, but as long as he can avoid running into an overly-patient team he should continue to have success. The lone worry for me is the fact that the Mets' infield currently ranks 21st in Outs Above Average — and with a poor hard-hit rate there isn't a great chance he can maintain these sharp numbers.
The other quick thing of note here for New York is that it lost Jesse Winker in the strong-side platoon with Starling Marte after he was injured on Sunday, something that should weaken this offense just a bit. It ranks fourth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, however, so there's only so much damage that can do.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Offense Searching for Punch
Arizona seems to have fooled us all once again. This is a team which has been incredible at getting hot for months at a time only to revert back to an average offense, and in the last two weeks they sit 17th in wRC+ after an incredibly hot start.
The Diamondbacks are still slugging the ball with a .172 Isolated Power, but they're hitting just .240 with a .277 BABIP which wouldn't suggest there's an abundance of bad luck here. Their walk rate has weakened to 8.8% over that span, and while they're not striking out a ton you'd have to say they're missing a bit of punch. The good news is they sit second in OPS to ground-ball pitchers this year as opposed to 15th in the reverse split.
Speaking of contact, that's the name of the game against probable starter Ryne Nelson. His strikeout rate sits at a strong 27.4%, and his walk rate a miniscule 5.5%, which has made it awfully tough to piece together big innings. He's also pitched to a tidy 2% barrel rate through 17 innings, and while the sample is small there's reason to read into these numbers given he was a stalwart when it came to limiting walks and barrels a year ago.
The strikeouts are new, however, and likely a product of pitching out of the bullpen. He worked four scoreless innings against the Mets in his last outing, allowing just two walks with three punchouts, and now he'll make his first start of the year. You'll want to proceed with some level of caution here, but he should reasonably be in the game for four or five innings.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm eyeing this as a big bounce-back spot for the Diamondbacks offense despite my inherent distrust in them. The fact of the matter is that they crush ground-ballers, and while they're not taking a ton of walks they're also striking out in just over 20% of plate appearances.
Canning has been fortunate to find strikeouts given his numbers on contact are unsustainable with his defense, and while he hasn't allowed a ton of power with an improved .394 xSLG, that's still just 11 points off the league average.
The Mets should also continue to hit against Nelson, who shined in mop-up duty against the Mets last week. Now, the pressure will be on, and against a team which hardly strikes out his already-inflated strikeout rate should keep on trickling down. New York is hitting .289 in the last 14 days with plenty of power, and the young righty is due for regression against a team which can put the ball in play with his .275 xBA.
Oddsmakers have set a high total for a reason, and I'll be aligning with them.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
Moneyline
While some big money is hitting the Mets here, we've tracked some sharp money hitting the Diamondbacks. I'd certainly have to lean towards the Mets here, who have the better offense and likely the stronger of two troubled pitchers.
Run Line (Spread)
The Mets are 6-2 to the run line this season as underdogs, and Arizona is just 7-9 against the spread at home.
Over/Under
The sharps are also on the Under here, which has hit in four of Arizona's last five games.
