I'm back with more MLB home run props for Monday, May 5.
I'm on five sluggers to go yard Monday, as I see betting value on James Wood, Matt Olson, Bobby Witt Jr., Tyler Soderstrom and Jorge Polanco.
Continue below for my Monday MLB home run prop bets and Major League Baseball HR parlay picks.
Note: While parlaying these picks isn't our official recommendation, we've put together an easy way to do so below.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, May 5
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Guardians vs. Nationals Home Run Pick
James Wood
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475)
The weather is a bit of a worry here, but based on what I've seen, they'll either postpone the game or will play the whole game. So, at worst, this will be a void.
Wood is in a great spot going up against Luis Ortiz, who has some of the largest home run splits in the league. Ortiz owns a fantastic 0.66 HR/9 in his career vs. righties but a massive 1.71 HR/9 to lefties.
The weather should be good for homers, with high humidity and temperatures in the 70s. I have the true odds here just under +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: James Wood Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475)
Reds vs. Braves Home Run Pick
Matt Olson
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
Olson is in a great spot, and for some reason, we're getting him at large odds.
Brady Singer is not a bad pitcher, but he's struggled heavily with lefty power, giving up an above-average 1.29 HR/9 in his career to go along with good hard-contact numbers.
Olson is off to a slow start, but his hard-contact and barrel rates are good. I have the true odds here around 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
White Sox vs. Royals Home Run Pick
Bobby Witt Jr.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+525)
This is strictly a price play.
We don't have a huge sample size of Shane Smith in the majors, but he grades out as an average matchup for righty power.
The weather in KC should be average for hitting, and the ballpark isn't great for power. Witt, however, is an above-average power bat and has been hitting well recently.
The underlying numbers have been a little worse for Witt this season, but they still aren't bad and are trending upward. I have the true odds here around +450, making this a good bet.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs (+525)
Mariners vs. Athletics Home Run Pick
Tyler Soderstrom
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
Soderstrom has been a little cold after a massive start, but we know that the power is there, and this is a great spot.
Bryce Miller isn't a bad pitcher, but he's struggled with lefty power in his career, giving up a high 1.48 HR/9 to go along with a 50% flyball rate.
The ballpark is one of the best in the majors for power, and with temps in the 80s, the ball should be flying.
I have the true odds here nearly 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Pick: Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
Mariners vs. Athletics Home Run Bet
Jorge Polanco
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
Polanco has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, with nine home runs in 25 games. He's in a good spot tonight, playing in Sacramento and facing Luis Severino.
Severino isn't a bad pitcher, but in recent years, he's been more susceptible to lefty power. On top of that, Sacramento has been one of the best ballparks in the league for power.
The weather in Sacramento should be good, with winds crossing and temperatures above 80 degrees during game time. I have the true odds here around +350, making this a good bet.
Pick: Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
