A compelling AL West series kicks off in Sacramento on Monday night as the Athletics will host the Mariners. Both teams are coming off series victories and have played solid baseball lately.
Tonight's pitching matchup is Bryce Miller for the Mariners versus Luis Severino of the Athletics. The first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 PM EST and can be seen on NBCSN Bay Area or MLB.TV.
Take a look below at the team breakdown and best bet for the matchup.
My Mariners vs Athletics Prediction
- Mariners vs Athletics picks: Over 8.5 (-120, Play to 9 -110)
My Mariners vs Athletics best bet is Over 8.5 (-120). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Athletics Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -102o / -118u | -115 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -102o / -118u | -105 |
Mariners vs Athletics Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) | Stat | RHP Luis Severino (ATH) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.52/3.67 | ERA /xERA | 3.30/4.21 |
| 3.33/4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 3.71/3.99 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 9.3% | K-BB% | 11.0% |
| 33.3% | GB% | 39.4% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 88 | Location+ | 96 |
John Feltman’s Mariners vs Athletics Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Red Hot Offense Ready to Bounce Back
The Mariners have been playing great baseball lately. Despite losing the series finale against the Rangers, they dominated the weekend. The team scored 15 runs on Saturday and has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the sport over the past couple of weeks.
The Mariners are sixth in baseball in runs scored per game and are currently in first place in the AL West. It's also worth noting that Catcher Cal Raleigh is top 10 in barrel percentage.
Miller gets the start for the Mariners tonight. He is off to a rocky start in 2025. His biggest issue thus far has been his inability to limit free passes, and he recently walked five hitters in his last start against the Angels.
He has a respectable 3.52 ERA, but a 1.43 WHIP. Miller finished last season with an ERA under 3.00, but that number will not be replicated if he continues to struggle with his command.
He struggles to throw strikes consistently and is getting hit harder than last season. Miller is also not a ground-ball pitcher, which concerns me tonight in a hitter-friendly park in Sacramento.
Miller has fared well against the A's in the past as they are batting .192 against him over 52 plate appearances. However, these ballpark dimensions are much smaller than the Coliseum, so I'd be wary given how poor his command has been.
The good news for the Mariners is that their offense has been humming lately. It's also worth noting that they are batting .271 on the road thus far, .51 average points higher than how they perform at home.
Their numbers against Severino are not the best, batting .222 over 45 at-bats, but his strikeout numbers are down, and opposing hitters are putting the ball in play far too much for my liking.
After only scoring one run on Sunday afternoon, I expect a big bounce-back for the Mariners' offense on Monday night.
Athletics Betting Preview: Severino Needs to Step Up
The A's are one of the best stories of 2025 as they find themselves in the thick of the AL West race after one month of play. They have a lot of talented young hitters in their lineup and are much closer to consistent relevancy than you think.
Tonight, they'll face Bryce Miller and although the A's are bottom-10 in offensive walk rate, they should get a boost tonight.
The key for the A's tonight is getting a strong performance from Severino. As mentioned above, the Mariners have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the past couple of weeks, so he is in for a tough assignment.
Severino is not striking out many hitters, and opposing hitters have a .284 xBA against him. That is not a great sign heading into the season, despite his excellent first start against the Mariners at the end of March.
He fired six scoreless innings and walked four batters. The walks were uncharacteristically high for Severino, who has done a solid job limiting the free passes.
The Mariners strike out a lot as a team, so he must limit his contact if he wants to turn in another strong outing. I doubt he will do so, so I can't back the A's tonight at their given price.
The offense has struggled against Miller in the past, but he is highly overrated, especially given how wild his control can sometimes be.
I would not be surprised to see the A's offense show up, and the hitter-friendly dimensions should help them knock Miller out of the game early. Shea Langeliers and Lawrence Butler have both gone deep against him, and I still believe the market is underrating the offense.
Mariners vs Athletics Prediction, Betting Analysis
I am going to take the Over in tonight's matchup. Both Miller and Severino performed pretty well against one another in the first matchup, but Miller was tagged for three earned runs.
I wouldn't base the handicap solely on that matchup, but I do not like what I see in Miller and Severino's metrics. They both have been playing with fire, and it is only a matter of time before they implode.
The Mariners' offense is red-hot, and the A's return home should boost their attacking game. The market is still undervaluing the A's right now, and I think they will be able to capitalize on Miller's lack of control early.
Pick: Over 8.5 -120 (Play to 9 -110)
