We ended last week on a low note, but let's get back in the win column this week. It's a smaller Monday slate, but I was still able to identify some value.
I've got two YRFI/NRFI plays for Monday, May 5.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 5, 2025
Guardians vs. Nationals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Luis L. Ortiz vs. Jake Irvin
Outside of the weather that might prevent this game from happening, this spot is a near-ideal combination of factors for my model to show value on the YRFI.
We have an 8.5-run total, which is low enough to give us a good price. It's also high enough that with both teams being extremely top heavy, we can assume the bulk of the overall offense will come from the top of each lineup.
Three of the Guardians' first four hitters have at least a 115 wRC+ on the season, with nobody else in the lineup over 108. Washington is even more unbalanced, with the bottom five of their order all well below average.
The pitchers are both mediocre overall with ERAs in the fours. More importantly, Ortiz's ERA jumps to 6.17 his first time through the order, with Irvin's going to 4.96. They both also see an increase in xFIP early in the game.
Let's hope this one actually plays.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Griffin Canning vs. Ryne Nelson
Getting -125 on a YRFI when the game total is 9.5 is already a solid play absent any other information. It's an even better one when you look at the composition of both lineups.
The Mets first three hitters all have a wRC+ of at least 135 this season, with Juan Soto somehow the weakest member of the group. There's no easy outs there for Ryne Nelson, who is getting his first start of the season after posting a 5.82 ERA in 17 innings of relief work.
The other side is equally dangerous, with the return of Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks lineup giving them four straight bats with at least a 135 wRC+ on the year. Griffin Canning has been very good for the Mets, but his 2.61 ERA is hiding his underlying stats that are closer to 4.00.
This one is appropriately juicy at other books, but we're getting a nice price at ESPNBet.
