MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Padres-Dodgers, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Padres center fielder Franmil Reyes (32) and shortstop Manny Machado (13)
- Wiseguys are getting down on 3 MLB games tonight, capped off with Padres-Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Brewers-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Cardinals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys continued their hot streak yesterday, going 2-1 with their Tuesday plays. Baseball is such a grind. Sharps know the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of a long MLB season, with massive peaks and valleys along the way. The goal is grinding out as many 2-1 days as possible. You won’t become a millionaire overnight, but by the end of the year the units stack up bigly.
>> All odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Brewers (moved from +115 to +103)
The public doesn’t know which way to go in this one. But wiseguys have taken a clear position. Sharps cashed on the Brewers last night and they’re going back to the Beermaker well tonight.
This game opened with Philadelphia listed as a short -125 home favorite. Moneyline bets are split right down the middle, yet the line has plummeted to -111. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a cent or two if the bets are split. So what caused this big drop?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the Brew Crew, with sharps getting down hard on MIL at +115 and +108. This influx of respected pro money created big liability, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line bigly toward Milwaukee.
The Beermakers are receiving 50% of bets but 65% of dollars, further evidence of big wiseguy wagers backing the road team.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from +129 to +117)
The Cardinals crushed the Braves 14-3 last night, handing wiseguys a sweatless win. With Atlanta sending Mike Soroka (1.21 ERA) to the mound against the struggling Michael Wacha (5.35 ERA), recreational bettors see an easy bounce-back win for the Braves. But sharps aren’t falling into the conventional wisdom trap.
They’re buying low on the Cards at a decent plus-money payout.
This line opened with the Braves listed as -140 home favorites. Despite receiving 60% of bets, Atlanta has fallen to -127.
Normally if a team is receiving a majority of bets the line will move in their favor, forcing bettors to pay a more expensive price for the popular side. Anytime you see the line move the other way — against the majority of bets — it’s a clear sign of sharp action, commonly referred to as reverse line movement.
We noticed sharps crush the Cardinals at +125, triggering market-wide steam in their favor. St. Louis is also a road dog with a high total (9.5), a profitable spot ob which to bet since 2005.
An added bonus: Sam Holbrook is behind the plate tonight. Since 2005, home teams have lost 11.60 units when Holbrook calls balls and strikes.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Padres (line freeze at +137)
Average Joes love betting favorites, home teams and popular, big-market teams. The Dodgers check off all the boxes tonight.
In turn, sharps love betting against popular teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs because they’re overpriced. So instead of listing odds at what might be a true price of Dodgers -140, the books might shade the line to Dodgers -150, knowing the public will back them regardless of the 10-cent difference. This provides added value for veteran wiseguys to go the other way.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing tonight.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as moderately heavy -150 favorites. Currently 65% of bets are laying the number with Dodgers, expecting an easy win at home. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line has either stayed the same or fallen slightly toward the Padres.
Normally, 65% of bets would move a team from -150 to, say, -160. The fact that it didn’t raises eyebrows. It means books have liability on the road team and are wary of handing out added plus-money to sharps backing the Fathers.
The Padres are getting only 35% of bets but 55% of dollars, a clear indication that big pro wagers are in their favor.
San Diego also matches the profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Visiting Dogs vs. Better Divisional Opponent (+153.53 units won since 2005).