MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Astros, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Josh Hader (71) is congratulated by catcher Yasmani Grandal (10). Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games tonight, headlined by Brewers-Astros (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Diamondbacks-Phillies and Blue Jays-Orioles (both at 7:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys donated one unit to the house last night, going 1-2 with their Monday plays. The backbreaker was the Cubs moneyline. Chicago raced out to a 4-0 lead at Coors Field only to fall to the Rockies, 6-5.
While tough-luck losses can get you down, Goodfellas always keep an even-keeled, long-term approach. We’re only one-third of the way through the season, meaning there is plenty of time to claw back.
>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Arizona Diamondbacks (35-32) @ Philadelphia Phillies (37-29)
Jon Duplantier (1-0, 3.27 ERA) vs. Jake Arrieta (5-5, 4.29 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET
Wiseguys cashed bigly on the D-backs last night, as the Snakes posted a 13-8 win in the series opener. Casual bettors say the Phillies are the better team and have to bounce back and win tonight. But sharps aren’t buying the Gambler’s Fallacy. They’re riding red-hot Arizona — winners of five straight.
This game opened with Philadelphia listed as a moderate -145 home favorite. Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, the Phils have fallen to -132. Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better price to Phillies backers when the public is already pounding them?
Because sharp liability is on the Diamondbacks.
Early on, sharps hammered Arizona at +125 and +120 at two different books, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves that moved the market in the Snakes’ direction.
The D-backs are receiving only 32% of bets but 44% of dollars, further evidence of bigger, sharper wagers in their favor.
One overlooked, added bonus for wiseguys sweating the road dogs: Dana DeMuth is behind the plate tonight. According to our Bet Labs database, home teams have lost 36.06 units with DeMuth calling balls and strikes.
Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +134 to +122)
Toronto Blue Jays (23-42) @ Baltimore Orioles (20-45)
Trent Thornton (1-4, 4.73 ERA) vs. John Means (5-4, 2.67 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET
This AL East battle might be the most disgusting game of the night. But just because two cellar dwellers are going head-to-head doesn’t mean sharps are laying off.
Baltimore opened as a short -115 home favorite, with Toronto a +106 underdog. Despite 70% of bets backing the Orioles (likely because of the pitching matchup), we’ve actually seen this line completely flip away from Baltimore (-115 to +113) and toward Toronto (+106 to -113).
What drove this massive movement that turned the Jays from dogs to favorites? Sharp money, of course.
Wiseguys steamed the Jays at +100 and -104 and we haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the O’s.
This spot has cashed at a high rate for wiseguys this season, as unpopular favorites receiving less than 50% of moneyline bets have gone 89-57 (61%), winning +15.31 units with a 10.5% return on investment (ROI).
Sharp angle: Blue Jays (moved from +106 to -113)
Milwaukee Brewers (38-28) @ Houston Astros (45-22)
Freddy Peralta (3-2, 5.11 ERA) vs. Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.20 ERA)
8:10 p.m. ET
This Interleague showdown is a perfect storm for wiseguys. It’s one of the most heavily bet and most lopsided games of the night, while also featuring some of the biggest line movement.
The public loves backing favorites, home teams and winning clubs with star players, which fits Houston like a glove tonight. So of course sharps are selling high on the Astros and buying low on a Brewers club that has won four in a row.
This game opened with Houston listed as a -140 home favorite. Currently 77% of bets are laying the moneyline price with the ‘Stros, yet we’ve seen the line tumble all the way down to -119.
No, books aren’t being nice to the public out of the kindness of their hearts. They moved the line toward Milwaukee because they got hit with a wave of smart Beer Maker money from respected bettors.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked six different steam and reverse line moves on MIL at +130, +120, +115, +112 (twice) and +101. These moves are notable for two reasons:
- It’s the highest total amount of bet signals on any team tonight and we haven’t seen any conflicting moves on Houston, which means the Brewers support is purely from wiseguys.
- Sharps kept hitting Milwaukee even though the line got worse and the payout got smaller, signaling supreme confidence in the road dog tonight.
Sharp angle: Brewers (moved from +129 to +110)