MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Astros, 2 Other Tuesday Games

Jun 11, 2019 02:17 PM EDT

Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Josh Hader (71) is congratulated by catcher Yasmani Grandal (10). Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games tonight, headlined by Brewers-Astros (8:10 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Diamondbacks-Phillies and Blue Jays-Orioles (both at 7:05 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys donated one unit to the house last night, going 1-2 with their Monday plays. The backbreaker was the Cubs moneyline. Chicago raced out to a 4-0 lead at Coors Field only to fall to the Rockies, 6-5.

While tough-luck losses can get you down, Goodfellas always keep an even-keeled, long-term approach. We’re only one-third of the way through the season, meaning there is plenty of time to claw back.

After analyzing Tuesday’s massive 16-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.

>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Arizona Diamondbacks (35-32) @ Philadelphia Phillies (37-29)

Jon Duplantier (1-0, 3.27 ERA) vs. Jake Arrieta (5-5, 4.29 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET

Wiseguys cashed bigly on the D-backs last night, as the Snakes posted a 13-8 win in the series opener. Casual bettors say the Phillies are the better team and have to bounce back and win tonight. But sharps aren’t buying the Gambler’s Fallacy. They’re riding red-hot Arizona — winners of five straight.

This game opened with Philadelphia listed as a moderate -145 home favorite. Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, the Phils have fallen to -132. Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better price to Phillies backers when the public is already pounding them?

Because sharp liability is on the Diamondbacks.

Early on, sharps hammered Arizona at +125 and +120 at two different books, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves that moved the market in the Snakes’ direction.

The D-backs are receiving only 32% of bets but 44% of dollars, further evidence of bigger, sharper wagers in their favor.

One overlooked, added bonus for wiseguys sweating the road dogs: Dana DeMuth is behind the plate tonight. According to our Bet Labs database, home teams have lost 36.06 units with DeMuth calling balls and strikes.

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +134 to +122)

Toronto Blue Jays (23-42) @ Baltimore Orioles (20-45)

Trent Thornton (1-4, 4.73 ERA) vs. John Means (5-4, 2.67 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET

This AL East battle might be the most disgusting game of the night. But just because two cellar dwellers are going head-to-head doesn’t mean sharps are laying off.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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