MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Indians-Astros, Yankees-Angels

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Indians-Astros, Yankees-Angels article feature image

Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) steals second base against New York Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu (26). Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on two MLB games on Thursday, including Indians-Astros (8:10 p.m. ET) and Yankees-Angels (9:07 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys continued their hot streak yesterday, going 2-1 with their Wednesday plays. Sharps were this close to another sweep of the board, but the Dodgers blew a 3-0 lead in the sixth before eventually losing to the Cubs, 7-6.

It’s always a good problem to have when you’re mad about a 2-1 night instead of a 3-0 night. On to the next.

After analyzing Thursday’s short 8-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on two MLB games.

>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros

8:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Indians (line freeze at +135)

It’s not often that you get a good team like Cleveland with its ace Trevor Bauer on the mound in a contrarian spot at plus-money. This is the epitome of value and you know the wiseguys can’t pass it up.

This line opened with Houston listed as a relatively heavy -153 home favorite. With Gerrit Cole on the mound, the public has no concerns laying the big price. However. despite receiving nearly 60% of bets, the Astros have fallen slightly to -150.

Anytime the line stays the same or moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, it should sound the alarm with bettors. In situations like these, normally the line would move further toward Houston (-153 to -160 or so). The fact that it didn’t signals sharp liability on Cleveland.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a big steam move on Cleveland at +136 without a single conflicting play (or buyback) on Houston.

The Tribe are getting only 42% of bets but 66% of dollars, further evidence of pro bettors grabbing the plus money.

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels

9:07 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Angels (moved from +110 to -108)

The Yankees are held together by bubble gum and duct tape, but keep winning despite their injuries. The public likes the Bombers to post their seventh W in a row tonight, but sharps are buying low on the Angels to avoid the sweep at home.

This line opened with the Yankees listed as moderate -130 road favorites. Despite receiving 65% of bets, New York has tumbled all the way down to -102. What caused this massive line movement?

As always, follow the money.

The Angels are receiving only 35% of bets but 65% of dollars — a clear indication that the big wagers are in their favor tonight.

We also tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on LA, one at +110, another at +105 and two at -108. This overload of sharp action created big liability for the books and forced them to flip the Halos from dogs to short favorites.

The Angels also have history on their side.

According to our Bet Labs database, home favorites receiving less than 45% of bets with at least five cents of reverse line movement in non-division games have gone 656-447 (59.5%), winning +81.47 units with a 7.4% ROI since 2005.

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