MLB Sharp Report: Pros Eyeing Red Sox-Indians, Rays-Padres Over/Unders

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Eyeing Red Sox-Indians, Rays-Padres Over/Unders article feature image

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Duffy, Willy Adames and Eric Sogard

  • Sharps have been causing line movement in two of Tuesday's MLB mathups.
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages reveal how the pros are betting Red Sox-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Rays-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).

A White Sox-Astros doubleheader has provided bettors with a hefty 16-game MLB slate on Tuesday.

As for the sharps, they’ve been zoning in on two of those 16, and have caused some over/under moves on Red Sox-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Rays-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

7:10 p.m. ET | Chris Sale (6-11, 4.41 ERA) vs. Mike Clevinger (7-2, 3.02 ERA)

The Sox and Indians combined for 11 runs in last night’s series opener, but even before that game had gotten underway sharps were looking ahead to tonight’s Sale vs. Clevinger over/under.

After opening at 9, the total was immediately steamed down to 8.5 yesterday afternoon, but sharps weren’t done there.

Since that point, most bettors have taken the over — perhaps nudged by last night’s final — but the total has continued to fall to a flat 8. Comparing bet and money percentages helps explain the move.

The 32% of bets landing on the under have accounted for 66% of actual money being wagered on the total. That means bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are on the under.

It’s important to note that with a one-run move comes a big loss in value. Since moving to 8 overnight, the juice on the under has inched from -110 back to -107.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres

10:10 p.m. ET | Brendan McKay (2-2, 4.55 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.51 ERA)

Sharps were similarly quick to make moves on tonight’s final matchup. Books that opened yesterday afternoon listed a total of 8.5, but were convinced by professional action to drop the number to 8, once again before last night’s games had even begun.

And while not quite as big a discrepancy, the 32% of bets on the under have accounted for 42% of actual money being wagered, which is arguably just as noteworthy as it means books are reacting purely to the bettors among the 32% as opposed to a monetary liability.

Also encouraging for anyone looking to tail the sharps: Two Sports Insights Bet Signals came down on the total even after the number had dropped to 8. Oddsmakers have responded by juicing the under to a consensus -115.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 8)

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