MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Reds-Cubs, 2 Other Saturday Games
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Reds outfielder Yasiel Puig (66)
- Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Saturday, headlined by Reds-Cubs (2:20 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting White Sox-Twins (2:10 p.m. ET) and Marlins-Nationals (4:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys saw their seven-game undefeated stretch come to an end yesterday as they went 1-2 with their Friday plays. Sharps knew that a losing day was inevitable after such a torrid run, and now it’s time for Goodfellas to kick off Memorial Day Weekend in style and start a new winning streak.
>> All odds as of 12:15 p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
2:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 10 to 10.5)
It’s a misconception that sharps (pro bettors) and squares (casual bettors) are always on opposite sides of a game. Sure, pros love betting against the public so they can capitalize on bias, exploit soft lines and place themselves on the side of the house (who always wins). But if they locate an edge, they won’t fade or lay off a play just because they happen to overlap withe the public.
This AL Central over/under is a perfect example.
Average Joes see the mashing Twins lineup facing off against a lefty with a 7.26 ERA (Manny Banuelos) and say “give me the over all day long.”
But sharps love the over more because of the weather.
The wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 11 MPH, making the over a match for a top Bet Labs Wind Blowing Out System (+88.42 units since 2005).
This total opened at 10 and 82% of bets are currently taking the over, signaling both public and sharp support. The total has bounced around from 10 to 11 and back down to 10.5.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked three steam and reverse line moves on the Over 10 and Over 10.5. We haven’t seen a single conflicting under move,
Another added bonus for Pros and Joes sweating the over: Larry Vanover is behind the plate this afternoon. Since 2005, the under has lost -33.29 units with Vanover (Van-Over, get it?) calling balls and strikes.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
2:20 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 10 to 10.5)
The Red Legs came back to beat the Cubs 6-5 in thrilling fashion yesterday, cashing as massive +170 dogs and giving over 8 bettors a sweaty, come from behind victory.
Today, wiseguys see another high scoring game at windy Wrigley Field.
This NL Central over/under opened at a high 10. Currently 67% of bets but a whopping 90% of dollars are taking the over, signaling moderately heavy public support but also massive smart money.
This lopsided action forced oddsmakers to move the line up from 10 to 10.5. And the Over 10.5 is being juiced up to -120, which means liability remains on the over and it may even go to 11.
We noticed a massive steam move on the Over 10.5 and the wind is howling out to right center at 10-13 MPH. When the wind is blowing out at 8 MPH or higher in conference games on Fridays, Saturdays or Sundays, the over has won 55.2% of the time (+73.55 units, 7.9% ROI) since 2005.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
4:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8 to 9)
Another sharp over play, can you believe it?
The Nats won the series opener last night 12-10 in a slugfest. This afternoon, wiseguys are banking on the bats to stay hot on both sides.
This NL East over/under opened at a relatively low 8. Currently 65% of bets and 68% of dollars are taking the over and we’ve seen this total rise a full run from 8 to 9.
Normally, 64% of bets isn’t lopsided enough to cause a full run move. It may force the total to rise a half run, but it’s not lopsided enough to go much further. So we know it’s more than just public bettors moving this total.
We’ve tracked two heavy steam moves on the Over, with sharps hammering the Over 8 at the outset and then coming back for more on the Over 8.5.
Once again, Mother (and Human) Nature is playing a role here. The wind is blowing out to left center at 10 MPH and Tim “Tight Strike Zone” Timmons is the home plate umpire. The under has lost -25.85 units since 2005 with Timmons calling balls and strikes.