Tuesday’s MLB Forecast: Shaky Weather for Harper’s Return to Washington

Tuesday’s MLB Forecast: Shaky Weather for Harper’s Return to Washington article feature image

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Max Scherzer.

  • Three of Tuesday's MLB games are projected to have strong winds blowing in, providing good spots to look toward the under.
  • Seattle has the best outdoor Weather Rating of the day, which is a rarity.
  • The Phillies-Nationals game has the worst Weather Rating of the day and a significant risk of rain, which could put a damper on Bryce Harper's return to Washington.

Bryce is back in the nation’s capital. Will he be showered with boos or showered with rain? Probably both if we’re being honest.

There’s plenty of interesting things going on for tonight’s slate: bad weather, strong winds, chances of rain, etc. Basically everything except nice conditions for playing baseball. Alas, it’s still April 2, so what more could we expect?

A Trip to the Lab

The wind has blown directly in just one time this season, but that’s about to change. Taking the under when the wind blows in is a simple, yet consistently profitable betting strategy.

Here’s where the weather vanes will be pointing toward home plate tonight:

  • Tigers at Yankees: Over/under 8
  • Phillies at Nationals: Over/under 7
  • Astros at Rangers: Over/under 9

Also worth noting is that Globe Life Park is historically the most profitable park for unders when the wind is blowing in, posting a record of 149-102-14 (59.4%).

Highest Weather Ratings (excluding closed roofs)

  • Angels at Mariners: 44
  • Giants at Dodgers: 40

Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. It takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure. 

It must be April 2 because you’re never going to find Seattle at the top of the Weather Ratings any other time of year. The highest Weather Rating ever recorded in Seattle was 64, and 44 is right around the 75th-percentile when it comes to games at Safeco T-Mobile Park.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Phillies at Nationals: 9
  • Tigers at Yankees: 11
  • Twins at Royals: 13

Can Bryce Harper take Max Scherzer yard in his return to the District of Columbia? He’ll have his work cut out for him, that’s for sure. In addition to the wind blowing in, the temperature will be below 50 degrees and there’s a chance of rain. More on that shortly.

Yankee Stadium will have very similar conditions. Wind in, high-40s temps and RAW with a chance of showers.

Kansas City should stay dry, but will have mid-50s temperatures with a very slight breeze blowing in from left field. Kauffman Stadium’s outfield has the largest area of any park in the league so I hope hitters are aiming for the gaps and not trying hit one over the fence on a night like this.

Inclement Weather

  • Tigers at Yankees
  • Phillies at Nationals
  • Red Sox at Athletics

There are a few games with a chance of rain tonight, but Phillies-Nats is the only one that could potentially get rained out, and of course that’s the game we all want to see.

Weather.gov’s “Today” forecast includes, “Rain likely, mainly after 5 p.m.” Its “Tonight” forecast includes, “Rain likely, mainly before 11 p.m.” Well, wouldn’t you know there’s a baseball game after 5 p.m. and before 11 p.m.

There’s between a 60% and 70% chance of rain when the game would normally be played, but that chance greatly drops off after 10 p.m. There could be a late start situation, but it’s a risky gamble for DFS players targeting this game.

The Yankees game, which actually starts at 6:35 p.m. ET, has around a 30% chance of rain after 8 p.m. If it does rain, it’s probably not going to be heavy, either.

Oakland is in a similar boat, with approximately a 20% chance of showers throughout the game.

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