Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 2 Odds, Preview, Prediction: How To Bet Nightcap of AL East Doubleheader (August 17)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi
- With Game 1 behind us, it's time to look ahead at Game 2 of Tuesday's Red Sox-Yankees doubleheader.
- Both teams are continuing to look to gain ground in the tightening playoff race.
- Collin Whitchurch previews the matchup and makes his pick below.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 1 Odds
|Red Sox Odds||+100|
|Time||Tuesday, 12:05 p.m. ET|
|TV||MLB Network (G1)|
|Odds as of Tuesday morning and via BetMGM|
Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 2 Odds
|Red Sox Odds||-110|
|Over/Under||7 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||Tuesday, 6:05 p.m. ET|
|TV||MLB Network (G2)|
|Odds as of Tuesday morning and via DraftKings|
The Red Sox and Yankees are both looking up at the Rays in the AL East standings, and both teams will look to gain ground on Tampa — while also positioning themselves against each other and Oakland in the AL wild-card race — as they open a quick, three-game series with a doubleheader on Tuesday.
Boston was off Monday following a three-game sweep of the Orioles over the weekend, while New York had to make up a previous rainout with the Angels after taking two of three from the White Sox.
Doubleheaders are always tricky to bet, given the seven-inning setup and uncertainty over player usage, but let’s dive into both ends and see if we can find some value.
It’s important to remember that, while we know which four pitchers are starting tomorrow’s games — and MLB.com has listed the below matchups for their respective games — these won’t be official until Alex Cora and Aaron Boone make them so. And if they change, the odds will as well. This story will be updated if pitching matchups and odds change.
Game 1 — Tanner Houck vs. Jordan Montgomery
This will be Tanner Houck’s seventh start of the season for Boston, and strangely enough three of the previous six have also come in one end of a doubleheader.
Houck has been a revelation this season for a Red Sox team that desperately needed the pitching help. As a spot starter who hasn’t yet touched 90 pitches in an outing this year, the 25-year-old has missed bats at an elite rate and limited free passes … basically the two most important things a pitcher can do.
Jordan Montgomery has been a steady arm in the middle of the Yankees’ rotation all season long, but his main contribution has simply been availability for a team that has seen so many players put on the shelf with various maladies.
Montgomery has made three starts against Boston this year and all look virtually identical.
- June 26: 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
- July 16: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
- July 22: 5 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
His most recent start was my far the most promising, and it doubled as his fourth-best of the season by game score.
Montgomery is a rare pitcher who relies on his breakers and off-speed offerings virtually as much as his fastballs (combining his four-seamer and cutter). His most frequently used pitch is actually his curveball, which he throws 24.1% of the time, and the Red Sox crush that pitch, with a weighted run value of 15.2 that’s second-best in the majors.
Red Sox-Yankees Game 1 Pick
It was a bit surprising to see the Yankees as underdogs given how much more established Montgomery is than Houck. There’s some small sample size stuff in Boston’s favor, though, including the fact that the Yankees are only 2-3 in Montgomery starts this season when they’re the listed underdog.
Houck really works in these doubleheader scenarios given his stuff and the fact that he doesn’t need to limit his effort when he knows he’s only probably going to go four innings anyway. Still, I think the odds have gone too far toward Boston, giving New York value. I would bet them at +125 to win Game 1 and down to +120.
Game 1 Pick: Yankees moneyline +125; bet to +120.
Author’s note: With the line moving drastically between early Tuesday morning and now, the recommended bet would be on the under 7 at -110, as the Yankees are no longer plus-money underdogs.
Game 2 — Nathan Eovaldi vs. Luis Gil
Boston has the clear edge on the mound in the second leg of the doubleheader as Nathan Eovaldi has been sterling all season long. He enters the day with a 3.92 ERA that FIP (2.77) says he doesn’t deserve. Eovaldi’s success has been by virtue of avoiding the long ball. After giving up eight dingers in just 48 1/3 innings in last year’s shortened season, he’s allowed just nine in 133 innings so far this season.
What’s been key in that stat is his avoidance of hard contact. A year ago, hitters were barreling up his stuff 8.8% of the time and registering what Statcast deems hard contact 39.7% of the time. This year, those figures are down to 5.9% and 34.5%, respectively, both below the league average.
Eovaldi has faced the Yankees four times already this season and has had their number each and every time. Granted, the New York bats snoozed through most of the first half of the season, but the right-hander has racked up 26 1/3 innings and allowed just five earned runs with a 28:1 K/BB rate.
This will be just Luis Gil’s third career start and, after shutting down the Orioles and Mariners his first two times out, his sternest test to date. Gil has yet to allow an earned run across 11 innings in those two starts, with 14 strikeouts to just three walks.
New York’s No. 4-ranked prospect entering the season, Gil features an elite fastball that touches the upper-90s with good movement. His profile has always screamed “reliever” to scouts mostly because of a lack of consistency with his secondaries. Indeed, in his two starts he’s been very fastball-heavy, but it’s been good. The slider has been solid, too, with a 28.6% whiff rate while throwing it about one-third of the time.
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Red Sox-Yankees Game 2 Pick
The Yankees haven’t dropped a series since losing three of four to the Red Sox in late July, and they have gone 15-5 during that span including a win in Monday’s makeup game.
Even with the pitching mismatch, I don’t find much value on the moneyline here, which is essentially a coin flip.
Instead, I’ll focus on the total. Eovaldi has been a nightmare for the Yankees all season, and anytime a pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff faces a club for the first time, the edge goes to the pitcher, so I like Gil in this spot, too.
Plus, given that this game is only seven innings, Aaron Boone will likely be able to turn things over to the bullpen early if Gil gets in trouble. I know that bullpen has had its issues lately, but the unit is still a net positive in the Bronx.
Thus, I think there’s value on the total at its current number of 7 and -110, but I wouldn’t bet it beyond that.
Game 2 Pick: Under 7 (-110).