The Houston Astros host the Cincinnati Reds on May 9, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Reds vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Reds vs Astros Prediction
- Reds vs Astros picks: Under 7.5 -105 (BetRivers) | Play to -115
My Reds vs Astros best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Astros Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Reds vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Martinez (CIN) | Stat | RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 5-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 4.19/4.16 | ERA /xERA | 1.67/3.03 |
| 3.65/4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 1.83/2.57 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 0.88 |
| 13.2% | K-BB% | 24.7% |
| 33.9% | GB% | 49.5% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 108 | Location+ | 107 |
Doug Ziefel’s Reds vs Astros Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Tough Matchup Against Hunter Brown
The Cincinnati Reds come into this series opener scuffling. They've lost four of their last five, including a heartbreaking defeat to the Braves on Thursday in extra innings.
Their road trip continues on Friday, and their outlook at the plate isn't promising. The Reds' lineup is due for regression, as its xBA is six points lower than the team's batting average.
This is mainly due to their lack of hard contact. Cincinnati holds the fourth-worst hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Those aren't the metrics you want to take into a matchup against Hunter Brown.
Brown has asserted himself as the ace of the Astros, and he's gotten off to a tremendous start in 2025. Brown enters his eighth start of the season with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.
He thrives against teams like the Reds. He ranks in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity.
Look for him to shut down the Reds' offense for most of this game.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Bats Aren't Producing Much
Speaking of teams that haven't hit the ball hard consistently, there's no team worse than the Houston Astros currently. They hold the lowest average exit velocity in baseball and desperately miss slugger Yordan Alvarez in the middle of their order.
Projecting success for the Astros' bats on Friday is tricky, as they're due for positive regression but don't make loud contact and have tendencies opposite to the starting pitcher they'll be facing for at least the first half of this game.
Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez has been serviceable and consistent to start the season. Martinez is a flyball pitcher who doesn't allow much hard contact either, ranking in the 73rd percentile in hard-hit rate and 67th in average exit velocity allowed.
The Astros have the eighth-lowest fly-ball rate and home run total, so it's tough to see them doing much damage on Friday, even in their hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Reds vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
While taking the under on Friday is heavily predicated on Brown shutting down the Reds, it's also just as reliant on the Astros' bats staying quiet against Martinez and a Cincinnati bullpen due for regression.
That being the case, we should expect the Astros to put runs on the board, ideally late in this one.
With Brown primed for another stellar start, this under should come in with little sweat on our part.
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm staying away from the run line.
Over/Under
I'm taking the under.
