Kiel Maddox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Junior Guerra
Betting odds: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
- Reds Moneyline: +170 (Sal Romano)
- Brewers Moneyline: -200 (Junior Guerra)
- Over/Under: 9 (o-105/u-115)
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
After almost losing to Homer Bailey on Monday, the Milwaukee Brewers face the Reds again on Tuesday night and will try to figure out another pitcher with subpar numbers.
Romano will start for Cincinnati, and in projecting his performance and that of Brewers starter Guerra, I was struck how much higher my projected total was vs. what the books posted for the first five innings.
Romano’s numbers since the All-Star break do not paint a pretty picture: 5.95 ERA, 2.93 BAA, and just a 14/6 K/BB ratio.
It’s not that Romano’s stats in the first half were that much better, but he was actually a little unlucky in those months. In July and August, less so.
There isn’t a way to parse his performance or project forward in a way that makes this matchup less enticing for a Milwaukee lineup that’s hitting about 20 points better since the All-Star break, with a 30-point increase in OPS.
On the other side, Guerra’s impressive first half of the season was fun while it lasted, but the wheels have officially come off since the All-Star break: 21 runs (17 earned) in just 27.2 IP, a 51-point increase in BAA, and just a 20/11 K/BB ratio.
The Reds offense has been on fire recently too, with an OPS of .825 in the past seven days.
The way both starters and both offenses are trending makes this pretty straightforward.
And as an added bonus, we’ve been slightly higher run numbers when projected home plate umpire Tripp Gibson III is behind the plate.
I’m looking to a First 5 Innings bet to take advantage.