Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, October 20.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 7. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, October 20
Series Moneyline Corner
The Dodgers are currently listed as low as -210 (67.7% implied) to win the World Series, which is precisely where I would set their fair odds in a seven-game series against the Blue Jays, without home-field advantage until Game 3.
Since the Dodgers would have home-field advantage over the Mariners, however, I would project their fair odds closer to -250 against Seattle.
As a result, I likely will not show value on the Dodgers' World Series odds, assuming Toronto wins ALCS Game 7 on Monday, but I would bet the Dodgers up to -230 (69.7% implied) in a series against the Mariners.
After incorporating their Game 7 odds, I would set the Blue Jays' current fair World Series odds at +517 (16.2% implied), and the Mariners' at +609 (14.1%), compared to -230 (69.7%) for the Dodgers.
If you have Mariners futures, you can decide whether to hedge before Game 7 or not. The calculus changes slightly, depending upon whether you only have their AL Pennant and World Series futures, or whether you also added the Dodgers-Mariners exacta I recommended in my playoff betting preview.
Personally, I have a half unit staked on the Mariners AL Pennant at average odds of +1100, in addition to 0.1u on the AL/NL pennant exacta at +1200, to win a total of 6.7 units on Game 7 directly, from 0.6u risked (average odds of +1117). Moreover, I have a quarter unit of Mariners World Series futures at average odds of +2640, and one unit on the Dodgers at +188 to consider including or excluding from the calculus.
The simplest hedge is to bet to win around half the position — in this case, roughly three units on the Blue Jays in Game 7 — effectively neutralizing the potential AL pennant profit regardless of outcome while retaining the option to hedge World Series futures in the next round if the Mariners survive.
Use our hedge calculator to maximize your potential profit (below example based on $100 unit sizing):
Alternatively, you could bet to win 1.5 units on Toronto to stay slightly overweight on Seattle for Game 7, or merely bet enough (around three-quarters of a unit at -125) to freeroll your existing futures tickets.
Of course, you don't need to hedge at all if you'd rather preserve your expected value, as I also project the Mariners as the +EV side of the Game 7 moneyline. And if I told you that you could have average odds north of 10-to-1 on the outcome of an event with a near 50% win probability, you would be looking to add as much exposure as possible to the position, rather than reducing your potential upside.
Unless it is a life-changing amount of money, I'm generally on team #NoHedge, but I cannot determine your personal risk tolerance. I would recommend making peace with whether you are comfortable sweating a seven-unit swing on one baseball game before deciding to let the pennant futures ride.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
George Kirby vs. Shane Bieber
The stylistic clash, which concerned me most for Seattle in this series — namely, Toronto's defensive advantage and superior production with runners in scoring position — proved critical in Game 6.
The Mariners made three errors on Sunday, all of which led to runs, and hit into double plays in three consecutive innings (the third, fourth, and fifth), including a pair of twin-killings with bases loaded and one out.
Swing and miss has oft-been the culprit for the the Mariners with runners on base — and it was the Blue Jays' offense who actually led MLB in double plays (133) this season — but Toronto's team defense (4th in Defensive Runs Saved or DRS, 9th in Outs Above Average or OAA) turned two hard-hit balls (.350 xBA from Cal Raleigh and .540 xBA from J.P. Crawford) with the bags full into four outs.
Conversely, Eugenio Suarez (-6 DRS at third base in 2025) and the Mariners' defense (18th in DRS, 26th in OAA) gave Toronto additional outs and base advancements to produce runs.
Toronto has undoubtedly given itself more scoring opportunities throughout the series, going 15-for-62 (.242) with runners in scoring position (43 LOB) vs. 8-for-35 (.229) for Seattle.
And given their abilities to avoid strikeouts (17.8%, lowest in MLB) compared to the Mariners (23.3%, 23rd) you'd expect more sustained rallies from the Blue Jays, and better production with runners in scoring position from their offense in general (MLB-best .292 average with runners in scoring position vs. .235, 26th for Seattle), whereas Seattle's offense is more high-variance and power-reliant (7th vs. 12th in ISO; 4th vs. 6th post trade deadline).
Both managers should have an aggressive hook with their Game 7 starters.
It's a rematch from Game 3 in Seattle, where George Kirby (4 IP, 8H, 8 R, 2 BB, 4 K) was clobbered after retiring six of the first seven batters, while Shane Bieber (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K) settled in after a rough first inning.
Kirby posted the higher ERA (4.21 vs. 3.57) but had better underlying indicators (3.85 xERA, 3.25 xFIP, 20.6% K-BB%, 110 Pitching+, 3.70 botERA) — even after dealing with shoulder inflammation in spring training — than Bieber (4.58 xERA, 3.35 xFIP, 18.9%, K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 4.29 botERA).
Kirby is a slightly better pitcher at home (career 3.27 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB%) than he is on the road (3.68 xFIP, 18.3% K-BB%), while Bieber's home/road splits are virtually identical for his career. Still, Dan Wilson has much more faith in his bullpen than John Schneider has in his own, and I'd expect a significantly longer Game 7 leash for Bieber as opposed to Kirby.
Toronto should have its full complement of relievers available behind Bieber, in addition to Game 4 starter Max Scherzer. Still, it's worth noting that in Game 6, Louis Varland worked for the fifth time in this series and ninth time in 10 playoff games, and Jeff Hoffman threw two innings and 35 pitches with a four-run lead.
The Mariners will have Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and Bryce Miller available in relief but they could be without Matt Brash, who was ineffective for Seattle in Game 6, pitching for the third time in four days and eighth time in the playoffs. Eduard Bazardo completed two innings on Sunday, but in just 15 pitches, and his rubber arm should be ready for multi-inning duty again in Game 7.
Seattle has the superior bullpen overall (4th vs. 15th in xFIP, 5th vs. 26th in K-BB%, 7th vs. 22nd in Pitching+ post trade deadline), and Andres Munoz (2.84 xERA, 3.05 xFIP, P 21.7% K-BB%, 115 Stuff+) will likely be tasked with six outs when called upon.
I projected Game 6 as a near coinflip, setting the Mariners as +101 underdogs, and their moneyline ultimately settled around +105 after climbing as high as +115.
I project Seattle at a very similar pricepoint (projected 49.8%, or +101) for Game 7. If I didn't already have futures positions on the Mariners, I would be looking to bet them down to +105 (48.8% implied) at a 1% edge compared to my fair price for Monday's Game 7.
I projected the total at 7.18 runs, and would lean to the Under 7.5 given the anticipated, aggressive pitching changes for both teams. Still, I would need at least -107 to find a one percent edge on the total compared to my projection, and the line has already moved from an opener of -110 closer to -115; perhaps I will target a Live Under nine if there is early scoring.
Pick: Mariners ML (bet to +105; assuming you don't have futures) | Shane Bieber Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (bet to -150) | George Kirby Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (bet to -150)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, October 20
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- Shane Bieber Over 11.5 Outs Rcorded (-140, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -150
- George Kirby Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (-110, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -150
