The Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners on October 20, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Fox.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
- Mariners vs Blue Jays pick: Blue Jays ML (-135 | Play to -140)
My Mariners vs Blue Jays best bet is on Toronto to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Odds
Mariners Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Blue Jays Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
RHP George Kirby (SEA) | Stat | RHP Shane Bieber (TOR) |
---|---|---|
10-8 | W-L | 4-2 |
2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
4.21/3.85 | ERA / xERA | 3.57/4.58 |
3.37/3.25 | FIP / xFIP | 4.47/3.35 |
1.19 | WHIP | 1.02 |
20.6% | K-BB% | 18.9% |
44.1% | GB% | 48.2% |
98 | Stuff+ | 92 |
113 | Location+ | 106 |
Sean Paul's Mariners vs Blue Jays Preview
The Blue Jays stared down elimination in their home park and emerged victorious. Now, with all the chips on the table, it'll be on Shane Bieber to send Toronto to the World Series.
2025 proved to be turbulent for Bieber, fresh off an elbow injury. He relocated to Toronto and pitched to a 3.57 ERA with a 4.58 xERA and 4.47 FIP in seven regular-season outings.
He pitched in two postseason games prior to Game 7. Against the Yankees, he was hit hard early — his fastballs reached 100+ mph, but he allowed just two runs before being pulled in the third inning. He bounced back with a six-inning, two-run, eight-strikeout masterpiece to give the Blue Jays a glimmer of hope in the ALCS.
Which Bieber can we expect in a do-or-die game? The leash will be short, but the key for Bieber is limiting the long ball. While Bieber allowed one homer in his Game 3 outing, it wasn't costly. Allowing a solo shot or two won't completely derail Bieber, as long as he limits base traffic. He often does so by limiting his walks. Bieber walked one batter in both postseason outings and walked two batters in two outings all year.
The postseason of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in full bloom. Guerrero Jr. hit a homer in Game 6, which is the fifth game he's hit a home run in this postseason — and the Blue Jays are 4-1 in those games. He's making life tough on Dan Wilson, deciding whether to pitch to Vlad Jr or live with the choice of the bottom of the order driving in runs.
I give Toronto a ton of credit for sticking to its approach. Sometimes, the postseason bright lights can totally alter a team's approach (I'm looking at you, Milwaukee), but the Jays have a 14.4% strikeout rate in the ALCS. They made their mark by working counts, and that has remained the case in the biggest moments. In the ALCS, the Blue Jays have a 123 wRC+, behind only the Dodgers for the highest mark among the four LCS teams.
That approach had Mariners starter George Kirby in disarray in Game 3. The typically reliable Kirby allowed eight runs in four innings, while allowing three homers and walking two batters.
Kirby had a strong regular season. He had a misleading 4.21 ERA, as he also had a 3.85 xERA and a 3.37 FIP. He also posted a 9.79 K/9, but his BB/9 went from a historically good 1.08 to a 2.09. The increase in walks could spell trouble in this winner-take-all showdown.
Was that more about Kirby or the Blue Jays' approach? I think a mix of both. Kirby left pitches over the plate, sure. But when a pitcher can't put hitters away with two strikes, it'll lead to pitchers being a little less careful, and the Blue Jays made Kirby pay. I wouldn't be surprised if Kirby struggles again, unless he finds a way to get quick outs instead of working deeper in counts, playing into the hands of Toronto.
As has been the case all year — when the Mariners hit homers, they have a good shot to win.
In Game 5, it was three homers accounting for all six of Seattle's runs. The Mariners managed to hit a homer in games four and six in losing efforts — both homers off the bat of Josh Naylor. All that to say, the Mariners' offense is more volatile than the Blue Jays.
Are they more likely to explode for 10 runs? Sure, but they're equally likely to score two runs and drop Game 7.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
I have to go with the Blue Jays here.
Yes, they dropped the first two games in Toronto, but very few teams found success beating the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. It's such a strong home-field advantage, and I just think the Jays are better suited to win this matchup.
They clearly saw Kirby well in Game 3 and handled Logan Gilbert with ease in Game 6. If they stick to their approach, I can't see them losing — unless the Mariners have an otherworldly night at the dish.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-135 | Play to -140)