Wednesday MLB Player Prop Bets & Favorite Picks, Including Freddy Peralta & Xander Bogaerts (August 18)
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta.
- We have another loaded slate in Major League Baseball, with 15 games on the Wednesday schedule.
- Analyst Tanner McGrath has uncovered three player props, including two starting pitchers and their strikeout totals.
- Check out below what has led him to these picks, highlighted by a play on Milwaukee ace Freddy Peralta.
It was a rough Tuesday for The Action Network’s player props team on there Major League Baseball landscape, with Joey Votto going 0 for 3 and Wil Crowe only collecting four strikeouts.
However, these plays are still hitting at more than a 60% clip. And, after researching Wednesday’s matchups using the Action Labs Player props tool, I’ve found three overs on the card that provide value.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, so I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Freddy Peralta — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Brewers vs. Cardinals||Brewers (-125)|
|Time||7:45 p.m. ET|
Today, this is a Freddy Peralta fan column.
Outside of being elite in almost every possible statistic (see below):
Peralta strikes out batters at impossible high rates. He’s striking out 34.5% of hitters faced this year, adding up to 12.22 strikeouts per nine innings. On the season, Peralta’s hit over 6.5 strikeouts in 16 of 22 starts (73% hit rate).
That includes against these Cardinals, where he punched out eight over seven scoreless, one-hit frames. St. Louis strikes out at a league-average rate, plus it’s even below average against righties, but Peralta still smoked the lineup.
In his last two starts — against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs — Peralta notched 17 strikeouts over just 11 1/3 innings, allowing just four runs in the process. The Brewers won both of games as well.
Today, FanGraph’s SaberSim projections has Peralta notching 7.04 Ks, while our Action Labs Player Props tool has him at eight flat. Either way, there’s value on the over 6.5 number being offered.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Tarik Skubal — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Tigers vs. Angels||Tigers (+100)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Skubal is tough to defend, because his season-long numbers are terrible. Plus, he’s only notched over 5.5 strikeouts in four of his last 10 starts.
However, when he’s pitching well, Skubal is a strikeout machine. This is the guy who struck out over 17 batters per nine innings in Double-A ball.
I think he has a good matchup. The Angels offense has been great season-long, but has shown weaknesses the past month. Over the past 30 days, the Halos are striking out at the fifth-highest rate in MLB (24.3%) and have the 11th-highest rate vs. LHPs (23.6%).
Plus, Skubal is going to throw a lot of four-seamers (44.8% of the time this season), and the Angels have posted the ninth worst weighted slider runs created in MLB this season (-7.9).
While Skubal’s season-long fastball numbers aren’t good, but he’s vastly improved with the pitch. He’s allowed just a .274 xwOBA on 77 thrown this month, and his strikeout numbers on the pitch have risen considerably:
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Skubal projected at 6.5 strikeouts, creating loads of value on the over 5.5 number being offered at plus-money.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Xander Bogaerts — Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
|Red Sox vs. Yankees||Red Sox (+100)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Bogaerts and the Boston Red Sox destroyed the New York Yankees before the All-Star break. The Red Sox won the first seven contests between the clubs, with Bogaerts cashing on over 1.5 bases in six of them.
Since then, things have gotten much worse for Bogaerts and his teammates. The Yankees have split the last six games with their rival, with Bogaerts just 4 for 20 in those matchups. Plus, he’s recorded no extra-base hits and thus never hit his base total.
With the Yankees surging and the Red Sox sliding, Boston needs something to re-ignite their season. Luckily, they’ve been given a gift today in Andrew Heaney.
New York’s starter has been pathetic since the trade. He’s posted a 9.00 ERA and a 5.25 xFIP in his three outings with the Yankees, and has allowed eight home runs in his 15 innings pitched.
Against Heaney, the Red Sox have a chance to get the offense going again. Specifically, Boegarts has a chance to get his bat hot again, considering his history with Heaney.
Bogaerts is 7 for 13 lifetime against Heaney with two doubles and a home run. Plus, he’s posted a .747 xSLG and a .496 xwOBA against Heaney, behind a 96.3 mph average exit velocity and 17.9 degree average launch angle.
Bogaerts and the Red Sox desperately need hope, and they’ve found it in the most unusual of places — on their biggest rival’s mound. I like Bogaerts’ props and will be happy taking over 1.5 total bases for him at close to even money.