MLS Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Toronto FC vs. Montreal
Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC star Lorenzo Insigne, second from left, celebrates with his teammates.
Major League Soccer enters its final full month of the regular season, with another solid set of matches ahead on the latest weekend card.
Philadelphia can move closer to locking up the top spot in the Eastern Conference in their visit to Harrison, N.J., to face the New York Red Bulls.
Across the border, Toronto FC faces a must-win situation for its playoff hopes to stay alive when it takes on Canadian rival Montreal.
Finally, Sporting Kansas City can play the spoiler role when it visits California to take on the Los Angeles Galaxy.
That said, here are our best bets for the intriguing lineup of matchups.
Our MLS Best Bets
RBNY vs. Philadelphia
| RBNY Odds | +140 |
| Philadelphia Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The Red Bulls' reverse home/away splits are dependable. To say what we've said before, it's probably the result of a team that excels in transition but lacks reliable, traditional center-forward play.
The Union aren't the league's best away team, but they're pretty good as they approach a near-certain top seed in the Eastern Conference. They're also in their best form of the season, thanks to improving chemistry their front three of Julian Carranza, Mikael Uhre and Daniel Gazdag.
And they deserve the lean as slight underdogs for a road trip that's no more than a two-hour bus ride.
However, I like being more conservative and buying the half goal here at -160 odds and an implied 61.5% probability via the Asian Handicap numbers. Because when high-pressing teams come together, the result is often gridlock that makes a draw more likely.
Just look at the recent season series between these sides. The 90-minute draw has come through in the last four installments between regular season and playoff competition.
Were this the 2021 season, I'd be on the moneyline draw. However, Philadelphia's offense is just too good right now not to have a stake in it taking all the points in this matchup.
By The Numbers
- 28.6% — Winning percentage at home for RBNY this season.
- 28.6% — Away losing percentage for Philadelphia this campaign.
Quillen's Pick: Philadelphia +0.5 (-160)
Toronto FC vs. Montreal
| Toronto Odds | +130 |
| Montreal Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +255 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +115) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
I think Montreal gets something from this game despite its midweek loss to the Red Bulls.
And if you're earning a point or more against this version of Toronto FC — the one with Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi leading the line — you're likely scoring two or more goals.
Manager Wilfried Nancy's side has been unafraid on its travels to exploit space left by ambitious home opponents, scoring multiple goals on nine of its 14 away fixtures.
And Toronto continue to concede multiples while earning better results of late, the one trend that has been consistent after the debut of its Italian stars.
The Reds allowed two or more goals in half of the eight games since that point and in 17 of 29 outings overall. And only a win will do now for their fading playoff hopes, with three of their final four matches coming on the road. That means there will almost certainly be space for Montreal to find.
There's probably some value on all the higher totals based on the home/away splits and oddsmakers buying into Montreal's somewhat confusing xG data. Montreal finding the net at least twice at +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability has the most value, though.
By The Numbers
- 64.3% — Away games in which Montreal has scored two or more goals.
- 53.3% — Home matches in which Toronto FC has conceded two or more goals this season.
Quillen's Pick: Montreal — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+135)
LA Galaxy vs. Sporting KC
| LA Galaxy Odds | -155 |
| Sporting KC Odds | +360 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+140 / -170) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 8 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | UniMás | fuboTV |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Sometimes I like to double down on my weekly Global Underdog pick by taking the same team on a +0.5 Asian Handicap wager.
In the case of Sporting Kansas City, which has improved massively with the summer additions of Erik Thommy and William Agada, I don't see much value. Neither it or Los Angeles has shown much affinity for draws. And while Sporting KC is much better with its battered roster reinforced, the club is too far adrift of the postseason to realistically play for a point.
Where I do see value is in the visiting side's ability to score against a leaky Galaxy defense. The club has found the net 12 times in five games since Thommy and Agada joined the starting lineup. It's also on full rest, playing a foe taking part in its third game in seven days, with the previous two on the East coast.
And even on normal rest, Los Angeles has struggled to keep tight at the back on home soil, conceding two or more goals on six of 14 occasions.
That makes the Sporting KC team total clearing 1.5 goals at +185 odds and an implied 35% probability a bargain. It's a wager that could hit even if the Galaxy go on to score three or four and win.
By The Numbers
- 1.4 — Number of xGA per 90 minutes in 14 home games for Los Angeles, which is the fourth-highest total in the Western Conference.
- 1.9 — Sporting Kansas City's xG scored per 90 minutes in its last five matches.
Quillen's Pick: Sporting KC — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+190)
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