The Nuggets opted for a different strategy in the previous matchup of this series by playing at a much slower pace than we've seen all season, which led to a lower-scoring game than the bookmakers might have predicted.
Should that trend continue with points being hard to come by, it could make sense to avoid the superstar players and target some of the lesser names when putting together our props for this afternoon.
Continue below for my NBA player props for Sunday, May 11.
NBA Player Props for Sunday, May 11
- Lu Dort Over 0.5 Turnovers
- Aaron Wiggins Over 8.5 Points + Rebounds
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 13.5 Points + Assists
Lu Dort Over 0.5 Turnovers
Thunder vs Nuggets, 3:30 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City's Luguentz Dort has struggled to find his rhythm this postseason, averaging just 7.9 points while shooting just 31.5% from the floor and 26.7% beyond the arc. During the regular season, Dort averaged 10.1 points and was deadly from the 3-point line, shooting 41.2%.
In Game 3, the Thunder guard was woeful, finishing with just three points on 1-of-6 shooting and 0-for-4 from the perimeter.
Dort's poor performances could lead to some mental fatigue, and bettors can profit from this scenario by targeting his turnover prop, which is available at 0.5. Dort has registered at least one turnover in four of his last five away games and six of his last nine meetings against the Nuggets.
There's a chance that Dort tries to force things to change his luck, thereby increasing his odds of registering at least one turnover.
Pick: Lu Dort Over 0.5 Turnovers (-110 at bet365)
Aaron Wiggins Over 8.5 Points + Rebounds
Thunder vs Nuggets, 3:30 p.m. ET
While Dort has clearly struggled, OKC's Aaron Wiggins has been a reliable piece coming off the bench. The backup guard is shooting 50% from the floor, 38.1% from the perimeter, while averaging 8.6 points and 2.4 rebounds in just 13.7 minutes of play.
Wiggins has a points + rebounds prop of 8.5, which he has cleared in 17 of his last 19 games when facing a bottom-10 defense.
Although the Nuggets were much better defensively in Game 3, their 115.1 Defensive Rating was still the worst among all playoff teams in this campaign.
Moreover, Wiggins has covered this prop line of 8.5 points + rebounds in nine straight games against the Nuggets. One thing about him is that he wastes very little time getting involved when he comes into a game.
His efficient play makes him a strong candidate to continue his productivity and exceed this prop line yet again.
Pick: Aaron Wiggins Over 8.5 Points + Rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Michael Porter Jr. Over 13.5 Points + Assists
Thunder vs Nuggets, 3:30 p.m. ET
Like Dort, Denver's Michael Porter Jr. has had his share of struggles during the playoffs. Porter is averaging only 10.7 points after posting a career-best 18.2 points in the regular season.
However, Porter is coming off his best performance this postseason in Game 3, after dropping 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 5-of-6 from beyond the arc.
Porter has a points + assists prop of 13.5—a number he cleared in ten of his last 12 home games and eight of 11 head-to-head meetings against OKC.
Nuggets fans will undoubtedly hope that his efforts are a sign of things to come because they'll need his strong play to have any chance of advancing past the Thunder into the Western Conference Finals.
Porter traditionally can be a very streaky player, and this might just be the start of him turning his postseason around.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 13.5 Points + Assists (-115 at Caesars)
