The second round of the NBA Playoffs resumes with an excellent pair of Game 4s this Sunday, as Thunder-Nuggets takes center stage at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, followed by Cavaliers-Pacers at 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified 4 NBA picks spanning both of today's contests. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Sunday, May 11.
NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Sunday, May 11
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. Pacers
By Joe Dellera
Just going to keep rocking with Mitchell here, as he’s been scorching hot this series, and honestly this entire season against Indiana.
Mitchell has exceeded this line in every game this series with 33, 48, and 43 points. He's been getting to the rack with ease, while generating and finishing through contact.
The craziest part of this entire thing is that he hasn't been all that efficient from 3-point range yet.
Darius Garland returned in Game 3, but only managed 25 minutes with his injury.
While slightly limited minutes may give Mitchell a bit of a boost, Mitchell plays very well off Garland, and gets a few extra catch-and-shoot three-pointer opportunities when they play together.
Indiana simply has no answer for Mitchell. He's putting the team on his back.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 Points (-125)
| | | |
Cavaliers vs. Pacers
It's time to go under in this series! The first three games have all had closing lines of 229.5 as the consensus total, and all three have gone over.
The total has now been repriced to 230.5 and taken some initial under movement.
When a NBA Playoff series starts to get into the deeper games, this being the 4th, the scoring decreases because the defensive assignments and offensive strategies are flushed out.
The total should stay right at 230.5, so the under is the bet.
Pick: Under 230.5 (-110)
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Thunder vs. Nuggets
By Joe Dellera
I’m going to sell a bit high in Michael Porter Jr. after his best game of the series.
He recorded 9 Rebounds + Assists (RA), but that was his first game with more than 6 since Game 3 against the Clippers. He has not been passing the ball well, and his minutes were reduced until his shot started falling last game.
A big factor here is that shoulder injury, which is one where he’s been able to receive some treatment, but it’s a bit inconsistent. He played 42 minutes in a critical Game 3, and it’s unclear how his shoulder will respond to that in Game 4 just two days later.
The Thunder are a tough matchup for this regardless, and if things are not working well, we have seen Denver slash his minutes. Forty-two minutes last time out was a peak outcome, and I’ll bet against that this afternoon.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Under 6.5 Rebounds + Assists (+110)
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Thunder vs. Nuggets
The Thunder are arguably the best team in the NBA, and they're in the must win spot.
The Thunder led by five at halftime, even last game. And they also covered in Games 1 and 2, leading by 10 and later by 10,000,000 at halftime to start the series.
The "better" teams have covered in the first half, even if they haven't always won. The Celtics have done it in every game against the Knicks. And the Cavs did in Games 2 and 3 against the Pacers.
To me, the first half "desperation spot" has been much more reliable than the full game number, as evidence by Game 3 in this series, Games 1 and 2 for Boston, and Game 2 for Cleveland.
It's not to say Denver will comeback again, because they "shouldn't," but I don't even want the sweat, especially if OKC handles business early.
Pick: Thunder First Half Spread -3.5 (-115)
