UFC Fight Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet Bartosz Fabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert (Saturday, April 17)

UFC Fight Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet Bartosz Fabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert (Saturday, April 17) article feature image
Credit:

Christian Petersen/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Gerald Meerschaert.

  • Gerald Meerschaert is a veteran of the octagon coming off a tough loss to Khamzat Chimaev.
  • Erich Richter explains why he likes Meerschaert to bounce back against Bartosz Fabinski in Las Vegas.

Bartosz Fabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert Odds

Fabinski odds -130
Meerschaert odds +105
Over/Under 2.5 (-134 / +100)
Venue UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Time Approx. 8 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet

UFC veteran Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert takes on Bartosz Fabinski on Saturday night’s preliminary Fight Night card. This will be Meerschaert’s first fight since he was knocked out by Khamzat Chimaev in September and he’ll be looking to snap a two-fight skid.

Meerschaert, an extremely aggressive submission grappler, enters as a slight underdog in this fight. Bartosz is a grappler himself, but has never submitted an opponent in his 19 professional fights. Bartosz is also looking to snap a two-fight losing streak Saturday night.

So which side has more value? Below I preview the matchup and odds for the Middleweight fight.

Tale of the Tape

Fabinski Meerschaert
Record 15-4 31-14
Avg. Fight Time 9:45 7:30
Height 6’0″ 6’1″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 77″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 4/26/86 12/18/87
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.20 3.30
SS Accuracy 69% 42%
SS Absorbed Per Min 1.35 3.61
SS Defense 53% 51%
Take Down Avg 7.08 2.33
TD Acc 69% 43%
TD Def 80% 46%
Submission Avg 0.0 1.7

Table data via UFC Stats

This is expected to be a grappling-heavy matchup as Meerschaert and Fabinski are average strikers at best. Meerschaert is a very skilled grappler who has only lost to the upper echelon of UFC talent. He has a whopping 23 submissions to his name across 45 career professional fights.

Fabinski mostly focuses on landing takedowns — he averages 7.08 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, but hasn’t even attempted a submission. Moreover, he has not had a knockout victory since 2014, so we really shouldn’t expect this one to not be on the feet for long.

Fabinski vs. Meerschaert Pick

These two grapplers but they couldn’t be more different in their approach. Meerschaert is a heavy submission grappler who is known to be creative off of his back. Fabinski mostly lands takedowns and looks to control his opponent.

Furthermore, every opponent that Fabinski has faced inside the octagon has logged at least one submission attempt.

Since Meerschaert is such an accomplished submission specialist, I will be favoring him in this fight. Fabinski has been submitted three times in his professional career — including his last two fights — and I think GM3 might be the best grappler he will have faced.

Meerschaert’s submission prop is around +250 across, which is about right. Any lower than that I wouldn’t even consider, but I think the real value is with the moneyline.

If there are multiple unsuccessful — but threatening — submission attempts I think that Meerschaert could grab a decision from the judges. That combined with some better striking that he showed against Deron Winn makes me pretty confident that he can win this fight multiple ways.

PointsBet has Meerschaert +105 to win the fight on Saturday, which I would bet down to any plus-money price.

The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert ML (+105)

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